by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 2: MISTER MONOLO (#6)
I found this to be a very confusing race. Morning-line favorite Tasunke Witco is the horse to beat, but his strong recent performance for Rudy Rodriguez came against weaker company, and he will likely have to face pace pressure from a number of Saturday’s rivals. Given that the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, I’m inclined to lean towards closers, and the one that intrigues me most is Mister Monolo (#6). While this horse did go off form over the summer, I think he had excuses in his two poor performance. He got too aggressive of a ride two back and was going a distance that is too short for him last time. He had previously run plenty of competitive speed figures, as well as a few over the inner track. If he’s ready off the layoff, I think he can beat this field.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,7,10

RACE 3: GRUMPELSTILTSKIN (#5)
My pick in this race is a perfect example of the difference between speed figures based on pace – TimeformUS Figures – and speed figures based on raw final times – Beyer Figures. If you’re just looking at final times, Grumpelstiltskin’s debut was slow, earning just a 57 Beyer, which is some 20 points below those of his rivals Condo Prince and Miggsy. On the other hand, his TimeformUS Speed Figure, which accounts for the fact this horse set one of the fastest paces of the inner track meet in his debut (note the pace color-coded red in TimeformUS PPs), was an impressive 103. That number is higher than both Condo Prince or Miggsy have ever run. Grumpelstiltskin (#5) forced the pace to collapse in that race, and he is likely to move forward off that effort if the early fractions are more moderate Saturday. He’s the one I want at what figures to be a much more generous price than what you’ll get on the two aforementioned favorites.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,6,7

RACE 4: JAN’S RESERVE (#4)
This might be the most interesting race on the card, as there are many ways to go and quite a few things to like about a whole slew of contenders. I ultimately landed on Jan’s Reserve (#4), who ran much better than it appears last time. This horse likes to come from off the pace, but it certainly didn’t help that he got squeezed back at the break. The pace of that race was not particularly strong, so I can’t fault Rajiv Maragh for trying to make the best of a bad hand. However, you rarely see horses overcome the kinds of four-wide premature moves that Jan’s Reserve made around the far turn. He stayed on decently in the stretch, but his early run detracted from his finish. Saturday, he should get more pace to close into with the speedy Chris Englehart duo in the race, and Ekhlaas and Sheik of Sheiks aren’t exactly slow early either.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3,5,8

RACE 6: SING FOR BEAUTY (#9) / ROAD TO PERFECTION (#3)
If Sing for Beauty (#9) can get back to the races she was running over the summer, she becomes a very likely winner in this spot. I know that her return last time looks pretty discouraging at first glance, but she got an absolutely impossible trip that day. This 10-pound bug rider had trouble getting her out of the gate and she subsequently proceeded to race extremely wide around the turn and into the stretch. She also may not have liked the wet track and figures to move up getting back on a fast track here. At a similar price, I would also use Road to Perfection (#3), whose dirt race two back makes her competitive here. I don’t mind this turn-back and she should be running on late into what is predicted to be a fast pace.

Win: 3,9
Exacta: 3,9 with 1,3,5,6,9
Trifecta Key Box: 3,9 with 3,9 with 1,5,6

RACE 7: J. J. JAKE (#3)
James Lane is the horse to beat off his 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure maiden win, but that was an off-the-turf race around one turn. Now he must handle his first two-turn test and will have to deal with other speed if they try to use the same aggressive tactics as last time. If I’m going to take a horse stretching out in distance, I want longshot J. J. Jake (#3) instead. I know that his two races against winners don’t look too encouraging, but one of them was on turf and then he had a terrible trip last time. He was shuffled back on the turn of that Dec. 8 race and actually did well to re-rally in the stretch once clear. He has the pedigree to stretch out in distance and Carlos Martin gets a 90 trainer rating with horses trying routes for the first time.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,5,7,8,11,12