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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight at 8.5 furlongs on turf

There is certainly some guesswork to be done here as few of the entrants bring proven turf form to the table. There are a number of interesting runners that are switching to turf after dirt debuts, including Momentiempo (#2) and Divine Miss Grey (#3), who both have strong grass pedigrees and must be considered. However, I spot another runner in this group that is likely to go off at a slightly higher price and may offer some value. LIGHTS OF MEDINA (#8) ran deceptively well in her debut, making a solid late run over a surface that was playing kindly to speed runners. We saw runner-up Ladies Day, who worked out a similar trip that day, come back to win in a vastly improved performance next time out. This filly’s dam only ran on turf in her three starts, winning once, and Eskendereya has proven to be a solid turf influence, so this surface switch makes plenty of sense.

I would also include Bernadiva (#13) and Bogulator (#14) in my play if either or both were to draw into the body of the field. The former ran very well last time when she broke the race open coming to the stretch, but both would be contenders.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,4,6,13,14

Race 5: Claiming $25,000 at 6 furlongs

This is a very confusing race in which I don't trust many of the favorites. Afleet Martini (#1) has run some of the fastest speed figures, but his persistent gate issues are a concern as he breaks from the rail today. Virga (#8) had legitimate trouble in his last race, but I'm unconvinced that he's actually good enough on dirt. Toohottoevenspeak (#5) is probably the horse to beat, but he's had his chances at this level.

I want someone new, which is why I'm taking a shot with TIMBER (#3). They tried to turn him into a turf horse during the past few months, but that just didn't work out. If you isolate his dirt races, he's actually run well enough to be a factor here. I know that his last race looks a little disappointing, but he got an uncomfortable trip and took a ton of mud in his face. I like the claim by Chris Englehart and think he's placed in a realistic spot.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,8

Race 6: Allowance at 6.5 furlongs

Of the two favorites, I prefer Summer Revolution (#4) to the returning Whitmore (#1), though both must be used in multi-race wagers. I've been waiting for Whitmore to finally get turned back in distance, since I do believe he's cut out to be best around one turn. However, Ron Moquett gets just a 29 trainer rating with horses returning from layoffs of this type. Summer Revolution, on the other hand, has the recency and should also benefit from this turnback in distance. All three of the sprint efforts that kicked off his career were solid and he is very much the horse to beat.

That said, there is one long shot that I think could sneak into the mix. JAN'S RESERVE (#5) returned from a lengthy layoff on the turf last time, and was badly compromised by an unfavorable pace scenario. That feels as if it was merely a prep as he now switches back to his best surface. This horse was very impressive when winning the King's Swan last year in fast time, and even gave a good account of himself when closing behind King Kranz in his next start. With routine improvement as a three-year-old, he could complete the exacta or trifecta, and might even be able to challenge the two aforementioned runners.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4
Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with ALL
Trifecta: 4,5 with ALL with 4,5

Race 9: Maiden Special Weight at 8.5 furlongs on turf

Seven of the runners in the body of this field are coming out of the same race on November 11, and four of them hit the wire within a length of the winner. I'm always skeptical about the quality of races where the fields are so bunched at the finish, and I get the sense that this may have just been a weak maiden heat. I'll acknowledge that the horse that may have run the best race is the pace-contesting Silly Numbers (#8), but I'm still inclined to look elsewhere.

Assuming she draws into the race off the also-eligible list, the horse that I want to bet is FIVE EACH WAY (#13). This half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Miss Temple City got her career off to an inauspicious start, but there are reasons to believe she can be more competitive today. That debut came against a decidedly tougher field of open maidens at Laurel and the race was totally dominated on the front end, as no one made late runs from the back of the pack. I'll use her with Lover's Key (#5), whose lone turf start is good enough to contend here, and Pinchbeck (#7), who has a ton of turf pedigree on the dam's side of her pedigree.

Win/Place: 13
Exacta Box: 5,7,13
Exacta Key Box: 13 with 2,3,8,11