by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card's Highlight Horse and PPs.

RACE 1: MY BOY TATE (#6)
The horse to beat is Zonic, who makes his second attempt around two turns after being hard-ridden throughout to finish third last time. While he earned a strong 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure, it was not the prettiest effort, and I think he's beatable today. I'll take a shot against him with second-time starter My Boy Tate. This horse was running for a tag in his debut, but the race came up quite fast. The winner returned to validate that speed figure by running a similar number against winners next time out. My Boy Tate made an early move to the lead that day before flattening out late, and he should be fitter this time for Michelle Nevin.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,7
 
 

RACE 4: HAVE ANOTHER (#7)
Unless one of the first-time starters can really run, this shapes up as a three-horse race. Mineralogy showed real ability in his debut, chasing a fast pace while two wide against a gold rail. His 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure is certainly above par for the level, and he is a threat to wire the field. Big Handsome could also show more speed today if he gets back to his debut effort after getting badly interfered with at the start last time. However, he has failed to change leads in the stretch of either of his races, which is somewhat worrying. I'm trying to beat both of them with Have Another. This horse ran better than it appears in his last two starts. He had to avoid a fallen horse two back when racing wide against an inside speed bias, and then last time he absolutely flew home, running a final quarter mile in under 24 seconds in a race dominated on the front end. He gets a positive rider switch for this race.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,5,6
Trifecta: 7 with 5,6 with 2,3,5,6
 
 

RACE 7: FABULOUS KID (#5)
This might be the toughest race on the card. You have evenly matched horses coming together from a multitude of directions, leaving the race with no obvious center. While a number of runners have chances, I can't resist a classic turnback like Fabulous Kid. This runner has been campaigned primarily in route races for the past several months despite the fact that he was an effective sprinter as recently as this time last year. I like that the new connections apparently claimed him with the idea of targeting sprint races once again. Steve Asmussen gets a strong 84 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with horses going from routes to sprints, and his barn has been doing quite well at the Aqueduct inner-track meet. There appears to be enough speed in this race to ensure at least an honest pace, which should help set up this horse's late run.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 6,7,8,10
 
 

RACE 8: DRAMA KING (#3)
I think there's more going on in this race than initially meets the eye. Obviously, morning-line favorite Bond Vigilante is the horse to beat. He's been in excellent form through his recent starts and the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be forwardly placed in a situation favoring the front-runners. However, it's hard to imagine that Manny Franco on Bustin It, who is drawn directly to his outside, would just concede the lead. Why else is Bustin It in this race if not to try and wire the field? If these two hook up early, it could create a more level playing field for the others. There are a few intriguing late runners in this race, but the one that I think will offer the best value is Drama King. I recognize that this horse's recent performances leave a lot to be desired. However, he absolutely despises wet tracks, which he has encountered in three straight starts. He's also had other excuses, like last time when he was racing on a dead rail at Laurel. His races from earlier last year are good enough to give him a big chance here, and I find it hard to believe that Rudy Rodriguez - who has pulled off his fair share of miracles at this meet - would enter this horse in such a tough spot if he didn't expect a form reversal.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,5,8
 
 

RACE 9: SICILIA CONNIE (#7)
Linda Rice has outstanding numbers with second-time starters. She gets a 100 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with the move, but you really need to dig into the DRF Formulator stats to appreciate just how dominant she is with this type of runner. Over the past five years, Rice is 19 for 42 (45%) with an ROI of $3.71 when sending out second-time-starting maidens in sprints on the inner track. Not only did Sicilia Connie probably need her first start, but she actually ran deceptively well, rushing up after a slow start before getting shuffled back on the turn and re-rallying in the stretch. I think we'll see a different horse this time.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3