by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 3: THREE EIGHTY EIGHT (#4)
Even though a few of today’s rivals finished ahead of her last time, I am very interested in betting Three Eighty Eight in this spot. This filly handled the switch to dirt without issue despite the fact that she was contesting sprints two and three back. Last time she tried a dirt route for the first time and undoubtedly ran the best race of her career. That affair was primarily dominated by speed horses as runners trying to make runs from the back of the pack seemed to have more difficulty. Not only was Three Eighty Eight a closer in that race, but she worked out a wide trip, making a move while three- to four-wide around the far turn. Jose Ortiz waited a long time before really setting her down for the drive, but she finished strongly through the stretch once he got into her. I don’t mind the rider switch to the apprentice so much, and believe this filly would offer value at anything around her morning line price.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,6,7
Trifecta: 4 with 3,7 with 3,5,6,7
 
 

RACE 4: VALIANT MAN (#6)
I suppose Long Haul Bay is the horse to beat as he makes his debut for the Chad Brown barn. He has some pedigree and has been working strongly for his first start. Notably, it appears that he’s been working in company with last week’s impressive debut winner Cloud Computing. I’ll certainly use him, but I don’t expect to get that much of a price. There are some more experienced runners with talent in this race. I’m taking a shot with Valiant Man, who makes the second start of his career. This horse unleashed a strong rally from the back of the pack in his debut. It was not as if the pace of that race was particularly fast, and he was the only horse to launch such an effective late rush. He is bred to be a nice horse and Michelle Nevin typically does slightly better with second-time starters. I'll use him with the aforementioned Chad Brown firster as well as Horoscope, who should appreciate the turnback in distance, and Cournoyer, who lost all chance at the start last time.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,5,9
 
 

RACE 8: HOT CITY GIRL (#6) / PLAY ME A MEMORY (#2)
I’m not really trying to beat the heavy favorite, Hot City Girl. She’s now lost a couple of races in a row, both at short prices, but I didn’t think she actually ran that badly. She was racing on a dead rail at Laurel two back and then last time she hung in decently after contesting a strong pace. She’s drawn well outside of her main pace rival Court Dancer and I believe she’ll be tough to beat. That said, I will use her in exactas with up-and-coming Play Me a Memory. This filly was able to negotiate two turns in her last couple of starts because she’s in great form. However, I think she’s better going shorter distances and I like the turnback today. She ran very well three back behind the talented Kathryn the Wise while earning a speed figure that puts her in the mix today. I don’t know if she can win, but she’s definitely one that I’ll be using in exotics.

Win/Place: 2
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 1,4,5,8
Trifecta: 6 with 1,4,5,8 with 2
 
 

RACE 9: MARTINO (#6)
The finale is a wide-open race with many ways to go. I want to look for a bit of a price, so I’ve landed on Martino. This horse needs to run a bit faster, but his last race is better than it looks after he went three- to four-wide around the far turn and stayed on decently in the stretch. Now he’s getting a huge rider switch from a low-percentage apprentice to Manny Franco.

Win/Place: 6