by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 1: ONECATS CHANCE (#3)
Despite the small field, there appears to be a fair amount of pace in this race. One-dimensional frontrunner Glowing Ember is committed to be sent out from his inside post position, while speedy types No Texting and stretching-out sprinter Global Positioning should be in close pursuit. The race figures to set up from a runner rallying from off the pace, and I believe the right horse is Onecats Chance. This horse got one eventful trip last time. After attaining good position stalking the pace on the rail, his rider seemed unable to hold that spot, and was shuffled all the way back to last on the backstretch. Coming around the far turn, he swung five-wide while attempting to sweep past the entire field. He ultimately flattened out in the stretch, but probably ran the best race. Now he gets a rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz, and he should be tough to beat.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5
 
 

RACE 2: DOWNTOWN AT NOON (#5)
Zealous Scholar should be formidable off the 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned for her debut effort, but the runner that finished just behind her may have actually run the better race. Downtown At Noon basically eliminated herself at the start when she veered in, costing herself many lengths. All things considered, she did extremely well to run up into contention on the backstretch while the leaders were setting fast fractions. She flattened out late, but managed to finish within 4 lengths of Zealous Scholar. The low-profile connections should ensure a decent price.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3
 
 

RACE 3: CAUSE I’M ALEX (#4)
Papa Shot is a deserving favorite as he steps up in class off two strong performances at the N1X allowance level. The runners that finished second and third behind him last time have both come back to win in their next starts. His tactical speed should allow him to get the jump on the closers, but I nevertheless want to take a small shot against him with Cause I'm Alex. If there's one horse in this race that has room for further improvement, I think it's this guy. He just seemed to be uncomfortable racing inside on the backstretch last time and was shuffled out of position. When he was finally steered outside in the stretch, he finished with a flourish in a race where the pace otherwise held together. He's in great form right now and would benefit from a more aggressive ride from Kendrick Carmouche.

Win: 4
Exacta Box: 3,4
 
 

RACE 7: OUR KARMA (#1)
I realize that this play is a bit of a reach, but I do want to highlight a horse that has a chance to at least sneak into the trifecta at a generous price. Our Karma has been compromised by trips in his last two starts. Two back, he was interfered with and shuffled back heading into the clubhouse turn. His rider seemed to give up prematurely as the field rounded the far turn, but Our Karma actually was running on at the end of that race, quickly passing horses in the final furlong. Then last time he was apparently squeezed back at the start, costing him any chance in the race. Yet he again was making up ground late. The pace of the race may not favor him, but he's in better form than it appears and could spice up the exotics.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,6,7,8
Trifecta: 5,6,7,8 with 5,6,7,8 with 1
 
 

RACE 8: NO SWEAT (#10)
The first thing to notice about this edition of the Busher is that there is a ton of speed signed on. Yorkiepoo Princess, Heavenly Score, and Full House are drawn alongside each other in the gate and all have run their best races when able to take command early. Beyond them, you also have other stretching-out sprinters who will be looking to gain forward early position. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, so something is going to have to give in the late stages. There are not that many closers to choose from, and the one that I want to focus on is No Sweat. This Todd Pletcher- trained filly has been fairly green in her races, often refusing to switch leads in the stretch. She appears to still be a work in progress for a barn that is typically known for its precocious young runners. The only horse running back out of last month's Busanda, she made an eye-catching far-turn move in that race before weaving and losing momentum in the stretch. I don't think we've seen the best of her yet, and I prefer her to the other closer likely to take money, Spanish Harlem, who beat a very weak field to break her maiden last time.

Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,3,5,7,8