by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 3: DESIROUS (#2)
Full House is obviously the horse to beat off her recent speed figures, but I'm a bit skeptical of her on the stretch-out in distance. Jimmy Jerkens gets only a 59 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with runners trying a route for the first time, and this filly's pedigree doesn't exactly feature a ton of stamina influences. She is a full sister to Classy Class, who is best sprinting, and her dam never won past five furlongs. Further, she may have to deal with pace pressure from fellow speeds Communion Money and Miss Pearl. I'm going to try to beat her with Desirous, who also stretches out for the first time. Danny Gargan is not known for winning with young horses, but he's been doing it more often recently with limited opportunities. He gets a 97 Trainer Rating with runners stretching out and a 91 Rating with horses making their first start for his barn. This filly did not run particularly fast in either of her two starts last year, but she looks like a bigger, rangier horse that will appreciate more ground. Her sire, Afleet Express, has been a strong stamina influence, with his progeny winning a solid 20 percent of their dirt-route attempts.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,7
 
 

RACE 4: TESTOSTERSTONE (#1)
As is the case with many races on this card, there is a lot going on in this one and many questions to be answered. Can Adventist get back to the form that saw him finish third in last year's Wood Memorial? Is T R Crew an improved horse since breaking his maiden? Is River Date good enough to wire the field? The one thing I do know is that I don't expect any of the aforementioned runners to offer significant value, so I'm inclined to look elsewhere. I'm taking a shot with one of my old favorites, Testosterstone. For whatever reason, this horse appears to have been rejuvenated since the claim by Gary Sciacca, running two of the best speed figures of his entire career. He may have been aided by the track two races back when he rode a gold rail for much of the way, but he still ran well that day. He then corroborated that strong performance last time with a good third in the Alex M. Robb. This horse always seems to move up on the inner track and I think he's a major threat to win this race at a square price.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4,6
 
 

RACE 7: ROLL TIDE ROLL (#3)
Roll Tide Roll put in a rare poor performance last time after finishing in the exacta in 10 of his prior 11 starts. However, upon closer inspection, that 6th-place finish is not nearly as disappointing as it might look at first glance. While the pace of that race was not color-coded as fast in TimeformUS PPs, the track had really changed at that point in the card. Whereas inside speed had been dominant early in the day, by the time this race was run the track was much more tilted toward closers. This race in particular was completely dominated by late runners making outside moves, so Roll Tide Roll was completely against the flow. He actually did well to hang on as well as he did considering where the other pace players finished. This time, he should work out a better trip given a much more favorable pace scenario. I'll use him with the turnback Jet Black and Imasuperstar, who was also hindered by race dynamics last time.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,7,8,9
Trifecta: 3 with 2,7,8,9 with 2,7,8,9

 
 

RACE 9: MAPLE MO (#7)
Sometimes you just have to let the statistics do the talking. I didn't find anything particularly compelling about Maple Mo's debut. She was setting a pretty moderate pace and just wasn't good enough to stay with the top two in the late stages. However, you have to expect that we're going to see a fitter and more professional runner today, since this is Linda Rice's pattern. She gets an ordinary 72 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with debut runners and 100 Trainer Rating with second-time starters. However, that doesn't tell the whole story. DRF Formulator Fact: Linda Rice has won with 18 of 41 maidens making their second starts in sprints over the inner track at Aqueduct during the past five years. She's winning at a rate of 44 percent with an ROI of $3.61. It would be foolish to ignore numbers like that. Further, Maple Mo should have the speed to win sprinting, since she worked an eighth of a mile in 9 4/5 seconds at the 2-year-old sale last year.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,9