by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 4: OPPORTUNITY COST (#7)
Of the two favorites, the one that I'm trying to beat is Apartfromthecrowd, whose last race has a phony look to it. It was an off-the-turf affair in which the speed figures - both TimeformUS and Beyer - came up surprisingly high. The winner returned to disappoint at a short price next time out at Gulfstream. On the other hand, I will certainly use the other favorite, Into the Breach, whose last effort was a legitimately good one. He overcame a four- to five-wide trip around the far turn and finished well to be second in his first start going a route of ground. However, I'm looking for a horse that finished behind him to turn the tables today. Considering that it was his first career start, I thought that Opportunity Cost showed a lot of promise. He finished just over two lengths behind Into the Breach despite breaking very slowly and racing greenly through the stretch. Todd Pletcher does well across the board with second-time starters (100 TimeformUS Trainer Rating) and he is especially dangerous with maiden second-time starters making their second starts in a route on dirt (DRF Formulator Fact: 20/61, 33%, $2.16 ROI, over the past five years).

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,5,9,10
Trifecta: 7,10 with 7,10 with 1,2,5,9

RACE 5: SUNNY RIDGE (#2)
While Royal Posse is clearly the horse to beat, having not finished out of the exacta in 15 straight races including his recent four-race winning streak, this is still a fairly wide-open affair. Among those to consider are likely speeds Bay of Plenty and Doyouknowsomething. The former was inexplicably empty last time, never able to summon his typical early speed before retreating just halfway through the race. It's probably a good sign that he's running back at the same level, but I can't completely trust him. Doyouknowsomething beat a strong allowance field last time, but did so under an ideal set of circumstances and will face more pace pressure today. I instead want to give a shot to the new 4-year-old, Sunny Ridge. This horse has run well enough against top-level competition on a number of occasions and is coming off two performances that are better than they appear. He did not get an ideal trip in the Discovery two back, and then last time he was badly compromised by racing wide against a pronounced rail bias. I think this horse can make a splash in the handicap division later this year, and this is the first step in that direction.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,6
Trifecta: 2 with 3,4,6 with ALL

RACE 7: DEVILISH GRIN (#12)
Most will probably try to get through this leg of the Pick-4 by using Toohottoevenspeak and Chomsky, who are clearly the two strongest contenders. However, it's never a great sign to see a horse taking such a steep drop in claiming price, as Toohottoevenspeak is, and Chomsky has never been a particularly reliable win candidate. They certainly must be used, but I want to try to beat them with Devilish Grin. This horse just didn't want any part of a two-turn race last time, and he was compromised by a wide trip prior to that. If he can get back to his races of September and October, he may actually have a shot to work his way into the exacta. He's now gotten a rider upgrade to Rajiv Maragh since those good efforts. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he'll be clearly in front early in a situation favoring the leader.

Win/Place: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 1,6

RACE 8: CANDID DESIRE (#3)
There is a ton of early speed signed on for this race – Little Popsie, Alright Alright, Portando, and Imasuperstar are all confirmed frontrunners – so it's no surprise that the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. Roll Tide Roll is a deserving favorite. He comes into this race in the best form of his career, and just never seems to run a bad race, having finished in the exacta in all but one of his 11 starts. However, his rider, Manny Franco, does not have much room for error, since this naturally fast horse will be chasing the speeds. If he goes after those aforementioned frontrunners too early, he could find himself vulnerable in the stretch. I want a horse that is going to be coming from slightly farther back in the pack. Both Candid Desire and rival Lazarus Project ran well when they faced off last time, but the latter has a tendency to hang once he reaches the leaders. Candid Desire, on the other hand, rarely runs a poor race on a fast track, and I thought he had some subtle trouble in that most recent race. He was stymied in behind horses for about three-sixteenths of a mile before finding running room too late in the final furlong. Candid Desire should work out the right trip today and I believe he's the most likely winner.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,5,9
Trifecta: 3 with 2,5,9 with 1,2,5,8,9