by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 1: ARE WE NOT MEN (#4)
Our Caravan is obviously the horse to beat. After looking like a beaten horse around the far turn of his last race, he gamely battled back in the stretch before pulling clear for a hard-fought win. The only issue is the price, since this horse tends to get bet in his races. I'm taking a shot against him with Are We Not Men, who figures to offer better value. Some may be turned off by this runner's last race, but he had excuses that day. Not only did he break poorly, spotting the field multiple lengths in the run to the first turn, but he was also racing over a tiring surface that some horses just failed to handle. Horses such as Banner Bill and Chelios were beaten by similarly huge margins in that race, but both came back to run significantly higher speed figures in their following starts. Are We Not Men possesses the tactical speed to be relatively close to what should be a moderate pace and he's run dirt races that make him very competitive.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,6,7
 
 

RACE 3: BOURBON EMPIRE (#4)
Bavaro has done nothing wrong in two starts, and last time served notice that he may be more than just a talented New York-bred sprinter. That 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he was assigned would win the majority of open company 3-year-old stakes races run throughout the country. However, there are some things to note about that race. He was afforded an uncontested lead and allowed to set a slow pace (indicated by the blue color-coding in TimeformUS PPs). Furthermore, he was racing along a very strong rail Dec. 17, a card that was dominated by inside speed. Given a short price on Bavaro, I prefer Bourbon Empire. I really liked this Mark Hennig trainee's performance last time, where he was the only horse to make a serious late run behind the talented Gold for the King. He finished up as if more ground should be no issue and he’s certainly bred to handle the distance as a half-brother to six-time route winner Lutheran Miss. Fellow speeds Haul Anchor and Carradine could go after Bavaro early and set things up for this late runner.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with ALL
 
 

RACE 6: INCORPORATE (#6)
Blue Belt is a serious threat to win as the favorite. He was bet strongly in his debut and ran to that backing, earning a field-best 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure while finishing a good third. He's likely to show speed again today for Larry Rivelli, who is more than capable with second-time starters (87 TimeformUS Trainer Rating). However, this is a large, competitive field and I'm always inclinced to search for some value. Incorporate is a longshot that merits consideration. I know that his debut looks pretty dull at first glance, but there are a few things to note: That was a very strong New York-bred maiden race. The top four finishers have all gone on to run well in subsequent starts, running faster speed figures — some even against stakes company. Furthermore, Incorporate was quite green in that debut. He clipped heels with Mission Command on the turn before reacting badly to kickback. Something kept him away from the races for months after that, so the incident may have been worse than it appeared. I like that Kendrick Carmouche gets aboard today and this horse is bred to have more speed.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 9,10,11,12
 
 

RACE 7: MASCARELLO (#4)
I'm not enamored with any of the favorites in this spot, so I'm taking a shot with Mascarello. I know his last race looks disappointing, but he got a trip that was just impossible to overcome. Racing over a rail-biased surface, he went five-wide around the clubhouse turn and rushed up to contest the lead before fading. Also eased in that race was his stablemate Zabaione, and that runner came back to run one of the best races of his career in his next start. Mascarello has run some competitive sprint races in the past, and I think he's taking a realistic drop in class today.

Win/Place: 4
 
 

RACE 8: WE DID (#11)
There is a lot going on in this race - far more than can be addressed in a single paragraph. However, one thing is clear: a fast pace seems likely given all of the speed signed on, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector confirms that notion. I want a horse that can take advantage of this projected hot pace, and the closer that intrigues me most is We Did. This horse has faced one unfavorable scenario after another in his recent races. He obviously had no chance two and three races back, when beaten by stakes performers Story to Tell and Loki's Vengeance, when both of those runners were able to take advantage of slow paces. Then last time, while he was facing an easier field, his rider left him with far too much ground to make up in a race where the pace mostly held together. He's going to be a big price today, but I think he lands in a great spot.

Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 2,3,4,8,9