by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 2: STARRY MESSENGER (#4)
Gorelli is surely the horse to beat after failing to hang on in the mud last time when finishing fourth at this level. He does own many of the fastest speed figures in this race and can be considered the class of the field, but he's also had plenty of chances to break his maiden and has yet to come away with a win. That's just not the sort of horse that I want to bet, so I'm looking for an alternative. Starry Messenger is an intriguing option since he's run better than it appears in all of his dirt races. He sustained wide trips in his two sprint efforts on the main track, and was especially compromised two back when he had trouble at the start as well. Then, last time out, he appeared to be hindered by an indecisive ride as Eric Cancel was too concerned with trying to rate a horse that wanted to be forwardly placed. I don't mind the turnback and believe this horse can pull off the minor upset.

Win: 4
Exacta Box: 4,5

RACE 5: SIR BOND (#5)
This is a very difficult race. Only one half of the Danny Gargan-trained entry will run, with Jose Ortiz named on both. The more dangerous half is Saratoga Wildcat, who had legitimate trouble in his last race. However, he's going to be a relatively short price and his lack of early speed may be a detriment in this spot. I'm going to try to beat the favorite with Sir Bond. At least I know this horse is in reasonably good form right now. While he did lose to rival Draxhall Woods last time, I felt that Sir Bond got into the clear a bit too late in that race and was finishing best of all across the wire. I don't mind this trainer switch since this low-profile conditioner has sent out a couple of horses that have performed well in recent weeks. Additionally, the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that Sir Bond could be one to show speed in a situation favoring horses on or near the lead.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,6,7

RACE 7: FORESET (#7)
There are quite a few speedy runners signed on for this race, so it's not surprising that the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. While my top pick Foreset has been a confirmed frontrunner in all of his dirt races, I'm hoping that he can stalk the pace from his outside post position in this spot. Turnbacks like this are always dangerous and this horse in particular is in better form than it might appear. It was no disgrace losing to the vastly improved Splashtastic two back, and then last time he was totally against the profile of the track. Dec. 7 at Aqueduct was a day that favored closers and horses in outside paths, and Foreset was showing speed on the rail – not a recipe for success. It's encouraging that Jose Ortiz keeps the mount.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,4,6
Trifecta: 7 with 1,2,4,6 with 1,2,4,6

RACE 8: JOY DRIVE (#6)
This is yet another race that figures to feature a strong early pace. There are a number of late-running contenders in this large field, but the one that I want to focus on at what should be a square price is Joy Drive. Unlike deep closers like Divine Interventio and Lazarus Project, this horse is not quite as dependent on pace and does have the tactical speed to stay relatively close early. This lightly raced colt showed some promise in his second start as a 3-year-old, losing to eventual stakes winner Bust Another by only a half-length. He returned from a lengthy layoff last time and actually ran a much stronger race than it appears. Though it was not noted in the chart comments, he was steadied sharply at the top of the stretch, losing valuable momentum before re-rallying late. I think he can move forward off that race for Linda Rice, who gets a 97 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with runners making their second starts off a layoff.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,5,7,8,11

RACE 9: BLUE BELT (#6)
I'm not trying to beat likely favorite Blue Belt in the finale. This horse contested a fast pace (indicated by the red color-coding in PPs) in his debut, and did well to put away the other speeds before just succumbing to the closers late. He took a meaningful amount of money for that race, going off at odds of 5-2. I like the rider switch to Jose Ortiz, and the 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned for that effort just towers over his competition today. Larry Rivelli knows how to win in New York, and I think this is a good horse to key on in multi-race wagers ending here.

Win: 6
Trifecta: 6 with 2,3,4 with 1,2,3,4,7,11,12
Trifecta: 6 with 1,7,11,12 with 2,3,4