by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 3: FRATELLO DEL NORD (#3)
H Man figures to go favored in this race off a strong second-place finish in his first start off the claim by the Linda Rice barn. He earned a strong 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort, topped in this field only by Proletariat's 115, which came against a weaker $25,000 claiming field last time. H Man has maintained great form lately and is the horse to beat, but I prefer another runner out of that Feb. 12 race. Whereas H Man worked out a great trip stalking a moderate pace, Fratello Del Nord lost all chance at the start when he threw his head and was subsequently squeezed back to last. Fratello Del Nord possesses far more early speed than that, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead in this race in a situation that should favor horses racing up front. Fratello Del Nord has maintained good form while knocking on the door at this level for the past few months. I think he's found himself in the right situation today, and he should be a fair price coming off his compromised recent effort.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,5,6
 
 

RACE 6: INCORPORATE (#10)
Sicilia Mike was installed as the morning-line favorite, and he has indeed run the fastest races overall. However, this horse has had more than his fair share of chances, finishing second in five of his first eight starts, and there are far more intriguing options among his more lightly raced competitors. Six Sided Bling is likely to attract support off his third-place finish against open company at Tampa last time, but I don't see evidence that he actually faced a tougher field than some of the New York-bred maiden races the others are exiting. Furthermore, his trainer, Michael Ferraro, gets a paltry 36 Trainer Rating with all runners on the NYRA circuit. I instead prefer Incorporate, who figures to improve in his second start back off the layoff for Bruce Brown. This horse was very green in his debut last summer at Belmont and was laid up for a long time after that. His return race was a better effort than it appears, considering that he was bumped hard and jostled around at the start. I would expect Kendrick Carmouche would have him placed closer to the pace this time provided that he breaks cleanly.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,6,7,8,9
 
 

RACE 7: CORE PORTFOLIO (#6)
Wine Not is the horse to beat, but I worry that he might wind up as an underlay in this race. He just seems to be too obvious in a race where there are not that many viable alternatives. Sure, he ran well last time going two turns for the first time in quite a while. However, he's a bit inconsistent overall and often seems to find ways to lose even when he runs well. He's not the kind of horse that I want to bet at a very short price. The same goes for Here Comes Tommy, who ran well to beat biases two and three back, but is just 2 for 45 in his career. I think this is a good spot to get a bit more creative, so I'm taking a shot with Core Portfolio. I know that his last race was awful, but he did lose all chance at the start after getting bumped and squeezed back. He had previously run a competitive speed figure against starter-allowance company, and that effort would make him dangerous in this spot. Furthermore, he seems to relish the inner track surface, finishing in the exacta in 5 of his 6 starts here. He will face some early pace pressure from Two Down One to Go, but Core Portfolio is just as effective stalking the pace. Apprentice Hector Diaz has a knack for placing his mounts well.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,10
 
 

RACE 8: SASSICAIA (#7)
I love to root for Green Gratto. How can you not love a horse that races as often and fights as hard as he does? However, I think he finds himself in a trickier position here than last time when he won the Toboggan. That day he was the clear speed from the inside post position and was able to lead from start to finish while riding the rail the entire way. This time he figures to face pace pressure from the speedy Chief Lion, and potentially even The Great War if that one actually shows up. I would expect the pace to at least be honest, which should set things up for Sassicaia's effective late run. This Rudy Rodriguez trainee was in awesome form over the inner track last season, impressively winning an allowance race before stepping up in class to take the 2016 Toboggan. He disappeared soon after that, but returned in a tough allowance race last month and turned in a performance that suggests he still is capable winning races like this. Chief Lion controlled affairs on the front end in that race, and Sassicaia did extremely well to get so close to him at the finish despite not getting any pace to close into.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,4,5
Trifecta: 2,7 with 2,7 with 1,3,4,5