by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 1: BANNER BILL (#1)
Horses have routinely improved when moved into Antonio Arriaga's barn over the past 7 to 8 months. This trainer doesn't have that many horses, but he has been winning at a high percentage recently. While I respect the job that Mitch Friedmann does, I think there's a possibility that Banner Bill can get back to some of his better races off this claim by Arriaga. After all, he was running speed figures that would beat this field as recently as last fall. His recent form does not look so encouraging, but he was facing tougher fields in each of his last two starts. Unless Nonna's Boy is intent on pressing him early, he should find himself in position to control the pace under a typically aggressive Hector Diaz.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 3,4,6,7
 
 

RACE 3: LIFE IN SHAMBLES (#3)
While I'd have trouble making a case for Proper Freud, the other four runners in this race are incredibly hard to separate. This race figures to come down to who gets the best trip, and that's why I've landed on Life in Shambles. This horse possesses the speed to be clearly in front early, and the Pace Projector indicates that he should be racing at the head of affairs in a situation favoring the front-runners. For whatever reason, he's been ridden less aggressively in recent starts. However, today he gets a rider switch to Kendrick Carmouche, who is more aware of potential pace scenarios than any rider on the circuit. I expect him to be sent to the front early, and I know he's talented enough to wire this field.

Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 1,2,5
Trifecta: 3 with 1,2,5 with 1,2,5
 
 

RACE 5: MAY BE A DIAMOND (#3)
The Pace Projector is predicting that Curious Cal will be on the early lead in a situation favoring the frontrunner. He has the right rider to take advantage of such a situation in Kendrick Carmouche, but I’m a little skeptical of how he’ll run in his first start off the claim by David Cannizzo, who does not have the strongest numbers in this situation. Therefore, I’m going to take a shot with a horse that is actually being sent out by Curious Cal’s prior trainer, Charlton Baker. May Be a Diamond showed real potential racing over the inner track last year. He broke his maiden in fast time, leading wire to wire. However, he was plagued by gate issues after that and his season ended prematurely in disappointing fashion. Now he returns off a lengthy layoff. According to DRF Formulator, Charlton Baker is 8 for 34 with a $2.95 ROI when sending out runners coming off layoffs of 180 days or more in sprints at NYRA.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 1,4,5,7
 
 

RACE 7: MILLS (#9)
There are many runners who can win this race, so I tried to focus on the one that I think will offer the best value. While Mills finished behind a couple of today’s rivals in a race at this level Feb. 19, I think an argument can be made that he put forth one of the better efforts that day. The pace of that race was extremely slow (indicated by blue color-coding in TimeformUS PPs) and Mills was not only rating well off the pace, but sustaining a wide trip at the back of the pack. Despite getting spun out into the stretch, he still finished quite well to get up for fourth. This time there figures to be a more honest pace with speeds such as Stormin Monarcho, Mighty Moses, and Lord Commander signed on.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,3,5,7
Trifecta: 9 with 2,3,5,7 with 2,3,5,7
 
 

RACE 8: HOT CITY GIRL (#5)
Some may be tempted to argue that Hot City Girl has lost a step recently after she had to work pretty hard to hold on for a diminishing 1 1/4-length victory over New York-breds last time. However, that margin of victory does not nearly tell the whole story. She was dueling with a formidable rival that day through some of the fastest early fractions (color-coded red in TimeformUS PPs) of the inner track meet. She did well to put away her pace rival and still hold off the closers in a race that completely fell apart late. Furthermore, her TimeformUS Speed Figures, which take pace into account, suggest that she hasn’t lost a step at all. Rather, her last two speed figures of 115 and 117 suggest that she’s held her form well. I like that she’s drawn outside of her two main pace rivals and I believe she is very much the horse to beat.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 5 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,4