by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 4: LEGENDARY HUMOR (#5)
If Ornato runs his best race, he's probably going to win. He was involved in a fast pace last time and had a right to tire in the late stages. However, he hasn't been seen in just over two months and has already had a few chances to break through at this level. Given a short price on this favorite, I'm looking at other options. The runner that interests me most is second-time starter Legendary Humor. This horse made his debut on turf last summer at Belmont while meeting a tougher group than he faces today. He showed good speed through the opening furlongs, but then things got a bit weird. He appeared to be uncomfortable racing between horses on the turn as he was throwing his head about, at which point Luis Saez took a hard hold of the reins and basically eased him out of the race prematurely. Now he returns on dirt against a weak field. If he can at least show the speed that was on display in his debut, perhaps he can take these a long way up front.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,10,11
 
 

RACE 6: MARBLE FALLS (#1)
Likely favorites Saratoga Wildcat and Draxhall Woods have faced tougher company recently, but I'm concerned that their form is heading the wrong way. The main thing to notice about this race is an overall lack of early speed. Indeed, the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation that should favor horses on or near the lead. Ackeret figures to be among the pacesetters, but I find him hard to take off a dull performance as the heavy favorite last time. I'm far more interested in Marble Falls, who breaks from the inside. This horse is getting a subtle but significant trainer upgrade to Ed Barker, who gets a solid 71 TimeformUS Trainer Rating off the claim. Furthermore, Barker gets a 93 Trainer Rating pairing up with Irad Ortiz. This horse is fast enough to take the field from gate to wire and needs an aggressive ride.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,6,7
 
 

RACE 7: SANDY STRIKES (#4)
I'm somewhat against expected favorites Bene and Vilma. I'm skeptical of the former stretching out in distance given Rudy Rodriguez's decidedly mediocre numbers with that move, and the latter beat a very weak field when breaking his maiden last time. I'm more interested in the horses that ran in the race at this level on March 4. Planet Trailblazer put in the best effort of those exiting that race, given the fact that he was three-wide all the way around on a day when you were better off racing down toward the rail. However, I also think Sandy Strikes didn't run nearly as badly as it seems at first glance, and he is going to be a much more enticing price. He's had poor trips in two of his last three starts, and actually ran competitively two back when he had a fair chance. He's going to be a big price here, and I believe he can outrun his odds.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,6
Trifecta: 1,5,6 with 1,2,3,5,6 with 4
 
 

RACE 8: OSTROLENKA (#6)
Rectify can obviously win this race at a short price, but he's the kind of horse that you really wanted to have last time, when he went off at 7-2 and trounced a softer field than the one he meets today. That said, he did run especially fast in doing so, earning a 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be clearly in front early in a situation favoring the leader, so he's got plenty of angles working for him. However, he does face some serious foes here. There are a slew of runners coming out of last month's Hollie Hughes. That race featured a fast pace that collapsed late, so I don't really want the closers exiting the race. Loki's Vengeance ran better than his fifth-place finish suggests, but I'm still not entirely convinced he's sitting on his best effort. Therefore, I'm landing on Ostrolenka. This is an interesting claim by David Jacobson, who runs him in a protected spot in his first start for the barn. Ostrolenka has simply been facing tougher fields lately. He was compromised at the start last time when beaten by impressive next-out winners Spartiatis and Still Krz – both of whom improved their speed figures – in an effort that is better than it appears. I'm hoping that Cornelio Velasquez can keep him closer to the pace this time, since he typically runs his best races when he isn't left with so much ground to make up late.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,4,5
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with ALL