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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 3: Allowance at 8.5 furlongs on turf

She isn't going to be that great of a price, but I think the right horse in this spot is ACK NAUGHTY (#5). Sure, I suppose it's fair to be critical of a horse that has finished second six times in nine career starts, but it's important to look at who was beating her in those races. After all, just this year she was a good second to Capriana, who would be the odds-on favorite in this race. Her last two races appear to be disappointing, but you must recognize that she was badly compromised by her trips. Two back, Ack Naughty got away from the gate awkwardly and could never get to the inside. When she tried to make her late run, she was forced out into the six- or seven-path coming into the stretch, which slowed her momentum. Then last time, she found herself racing out of position early, too close to a pace that collapsed while wide and uncovered. Today, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,11

Race 4: Claiming $25,000 at 6 furlongs

I can't resist DAGGERPOINT (#1), who makes his first start off the claim by Bruce Levine. While his previous trainer does win his fair share of races on this circuit, he's now moving into one of the better claiming outfits in New York. I also like that they're focusing on sprint races with this horse, since he has always been much more effective at shorter distances. There is definitely some pace in this race, and I think he'll be tough to hold off if he merely takes a slight step forward for the new connections. The price should be fair.

Win/Place: 1

Race 5: Allowance at 8 furlongs on turf

The more time I spent going over this race, the more I found myself leaning against the shorter prices. There are holes in almost all of the contenders in this race and the field is far more closely matched than the odds board is likely to suggest. That's why I've landed on a horse that is certainly going to be a price. It's fair to be skeptical of horses that have intentionally been rerouted away from the NYRA circuit during the turf season, but MARK MY STYLE (#1) has actually been facing some decent fields out of town. Horses like Best Bard and Italian Charm, who won his last two races, actually have real ability and would be contenders in this spot. It's also worth watching Mark My Style's last trip, since he was stuck down on the rail for too long and was shuffled back on the far turn. He had previously run well over this Aqueduct turf course, and he gets a huge rider switch to Jose Lezcano.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,6,7,8,9,10 

Race 8: The Discovery at 9 furlongs

I typically stay away from the new faces in races like this year's Discovery. After all, there are some proven three-year-olds in this field that are actually pretty good. Gift Box and Governor Malibu were competitive in some of the elite races in this division and figure to appreciate today's drop in class. That said, I think it's worth making an exception in the case of HOT SEAT (#6). I realize that this colt has never faced a field of this quality before, but you cannot deny that this son of Unbridled's Song has serious talent. His speed figures stack up well against this field, and he's won each of his starts with mocking ease. The runners that he's beaten have come back to validate the speed figures he was assigned, and you get the feeling that--and I don't often say this--he could have run a bit faster last time if he had been asked in the stretch. There is very little speed signed on, which makes him especially dangerous from a leading or stalking position.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,5,7,8,9

Race 9: Claiming $25,000 at 8.5 furlongs on turf

If I'm going to take a horse out of the October 16 race won by McIlroy, the one that I want is PUT IT FORWARD (#6). I know he comes with some baggage in the form of numerous layoff lines, but he had some things working against him last time. The pace of that race was fast (color-coded in red) and he was contesting those fractions early. It looks as if fellow pace player Blue Pigeon finished much more strongly than he did, but Put It Forward was completely eliminated when that rival drifted out at the three-sixteenths pole. Now he races second off the layoff for Danny Gargan, who gets a 98 trainer rating with that move, and I think we can expect an improved performance.

Win/Place: 6