>Visit TimeformUS for Saturday's Highlight Horse and PPs

by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 1: Maiden Special Weight at 6 furlongs

Sicilia Mike has already defeated a few of today's rivals and is undoubtedly the horse to beat. That said, I get the feeling that we've already seen the best of this horse, and there are others in this race that appear to still have ample room for improvement--particularly second-time starters. The one that interests me most is ZONIC (#5). While he did finish many lengths behind Sicilia Mike in his first start, he also raced like a horse that didn't know what he was doing. After a decent start, he shuffled back while pinned down on the rail for the entire far turn. Once the field straightened away for the drive, he actually finished up well, passing some tired rivals. This half-brother to millionaire Mr. Z brought a hefty price tag as a yearling and I believe we're going to see a better version of him here.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,7

Race 2: Claiming $35,000 at 8 furlongs on turf

Our Pace Projector is not predicting a fast pace, but there is a concentration of speed horses in the middle of the starting gate, which leads me to believe that the early pace will at least be honest. That could be all READY STRIKE (#2) needs in order to get back to the winner's circle today. This horse put in a fine effort to win off the claim two back, and last time he was badly compromised by his trip. After getting away at the back of the pack, he was sent up to race in a four-wide chasing position for the entire race--hardly an ideal scenario on the turf. I like that he's shown improved speed since getting into the David Jacobson barn and he figures to work out a ground-saving trip from mid-pack today.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,6,7,9

Race 5: The Notebook at 6 furlongs

While contention in this race runs pretty deep, I can't deny that the morning line favorite is the most likely winner. GOLD FOR THE KING (#9) is not going to be much of a price in here, but I think he's probably the one you want out of the group exiting the Sleepy Hollow. I'm not convinced that he really wants to go a mile, and he also was never in a comfortable position that day, chasing the leaders while taking a ton of mud in his face before having to rally down inside in the stretch. Six furlongs is a much better distance and the Pace Projector is predicting he'll get a fast pace to close into.

If I were going to throw in a long shot, the one that I find most intriguing is SAL THE TURTLE (#3). While he was facing slightly weaker maiden claiming company in his debut, he actually ran well within the context of the race. He broke at least a length behind the field and rushed up along the rail before having to ease back to race outside the frontrunner. He put that one away and finished gamely in a race otherwise dominated by closers. I'm not sure that he's quite up to this task, but Michelle Nevin isn't known for winning with firsters, so it's conceivable he could move forward off that effort.

Win: 9
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3,9 with 2,3,4,5,9,12
Trifecta Key Box: 3,9 with 3,9 with 2,4,5,12

Race 6: Allowance at 8 furlongs on turf

I just have to believe that AZAELIA (#1) can do better than her effort in the Valley View at Keeneland last time. Perhaps it was the relatively soft course condition or the fact that horses coming from the back of the pack appeared to struggle, but she flattened out badly after threatening to launch a rally turning for home. She was one of the favorites in that race for legitimate reasons, having brought a strong resume from overseas. Despite going off at a huge price two back, she was a strong fourth in the Group 1 Prix de Diane behind La Cressioniere, one of the top three-year-old fillies in Europe. As N2X allowance races go, this one is hardly the strongest we've run in New York this year, so even a halfway decent effort by Azaelia should be enough to handle this bunch.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,6,7,8
Trifecta: 1 with 5,6,7,8 with 2,5,6,7,8,10

Race 8: The Artie Schiller at 8 furlongs on turf

I believe the horses coming out of the Knickerbocker are the most talented runners in this race. That said, I don't want the winner, Heart to Heart (#10), who had everything his own way on the front end, setting a slow pace (color-coded in blue) while uncontested. Today, he has to break from the outside post position and deal with the speedy Macagone (#3), who himself is not out of this by any stretch. I prefer Jay Gatsby (#1) and BLACKTYPE (#5), the latter of which should be a better price despite the fact that he was even more severely compromised by dynamics last time. Jay Gatsby is the classier horse, but I think Blacktype is better suited to today's one-mile distance and will get a more favorable pace setup.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 1,5 with 1,5 with 2,3,6,8,10
Trifecta: 5 with 2,3,6,8,10 with 1