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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Race 2: Maiden Special Weight at 8.5 furlongs on turf
While he does have to stretch out in distance today, I am very much looking forward to betting APPEALING BRIEFS (#8) as he gets back on turf. This horse ran much better than it appears in his debut. That six-furlong race featured a slow pace and was wired on the front end. Appealing Briefs was the only horse to make a significant late impact from the back of the pack. He’s actually run fine on dirt recently, suggesting he’s maintained good form.
I also want to use DYNAMAX PRIME (#5), who had some subtle trouble at a few points in his debut. He was shuffled back approaching the backstretch and then was unwisely sent down to the rail in the stretch, where he was forced to steady in tight quarters. I expect an improved effort in his second start.
Win/Place: 5,8
Exacta Key Box: 5,8 with 5,6,7,8,11,12
Trifecta Key Box: 5,8 with 5,8 with 6,7,11,12
Race 6: The Demoiselle at 9 furlongs
Jamyson ‘n Ginger (#4) is probably the horse to beat in this race, but I have mixed feelings about her. She will win this race if she runs back to her sloppy-track maiden win. While she hardly got an ideal trip in the Breeders’ Cup, that race came back quite slow, so her blowout win remains the only fast race on her resume. She needs to show up today.
I’m taking a shot against her with LADIES DAY (#8), who I think has a right to turn into a pretty nice filly. She ran deceptively well in her debut, over a speed-favoring surface, and she was utterly dominant last time while winning in decent time. She’s bred to handle this stretch-out in distance, and she figures to sit a good trip stalking the speeds drawn to her inside.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,4,6
Trifecta: 4,8 with 4,8 with 2,3,6
Race 8: The Remsen at 9 furlongs
I have to use Takaful (#4) in some capacity off his gigantic 120 debut speed figure. However, there is a lot of speed on the dam’s side of this runner’s pedigree, which leaves some doubts in my mind as he stretches out to 9 furlongs.
I instead prefer two sons of Belmont winner Union Rags. The more logical one is NO DOZING (#9), who ran much better than it might appear when fourth in Keeneland’s Breeders Futurity. He was squeezed back at the start and was wide every step of the way thereafter. He did not run significantly worse than eventual Breeders’ Cup winner Classic Empire. I think he’s the horse to beat, but my top pick is another recent maiden victor.
HOOKUP (#3) really impressed me in his debut. He rated kindly off the pace and launched a strong late rally when Manny Franco asked him, responding as if he had done this many times before. It’s worth watching the gallop-out as well, as he continued with strong momentum past the wire, putting a good 10 lengths between himself and the others. He has a pedigree that suggests he’ll love two turns, and his running style should fit this race.
Win/Place: 3
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 3,9 with 3,4,5,8,9
Trifecta Key Box: 3,9 with 3,9 with 4,5,8
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming at 11 furlongs on turf
I expect this race to be dominated by the three-year-olds. Recent maiden winner Richmond Street (#9) finally got the job done last time after running into some tough maiden fields prior to that. It was certainly no disgrace losing to repeat winners Deeply Undervalued and Sadler’s Joy two and three back. This horse is pretty good, but I think he’ll face a stiff challenge from MANITOULIN (#1), who is in better form than his last couple of races suggest. He didn’t get the right trip at Saratoga two back when he was wide around the far turn in a race dominated by horses closer to the pace and on the rail. Then last time, he was stuck in behind a wall of horses in the stretch of the Dueling Grounds Derby and may have finished closer if he had ever gotten clear.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,7,9
Trifecta: 1,9 with 1,9 with 4,5,7
Race 10: The Cigar Mile at 8 furlongs
While I respect Anchor Down (#1) off his performance in the Kelso, you have to recognize that circumstances had a lot to do with that win. He was the only speed in the race and Javier Castellano rated him along on the front end perfectly, saving plenty for the stretch drive. Tamarkuz’s subsequent upset victory in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile certainly boosts the stock of that race, but I think he finds himself in a more difficult position today.
I prefer some of the three-year-olds and my top selection is CONNECT (#7). I was encouraged by this horse’s gutsy victory in the Pennsylvania Derby as he came through along the inside and fought off a good horse in Gun Runner. He earned a huge 129 speed figure for that win, and horses have come back out of that race to validate the number. I don’t mind the turn back to a mile one bit, and his versatile running style should give Javier Castellano plenty of options.
I could also use Realm (#3) in exacta and trifecta wagers. This three-year-old is unlikely to take as much money as some of his counterparts that have been regularly participating in stakes races. However, he's run competitive speed figures and his last race signals that he may have turned a corner.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,5,9
Trifecta: 7 with 1,3,5,9 with 1,3,5,9
Trifecta: 7 with 1,3 with 2,6,10