by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 2: WIZARDLY (#1)
This race presents a pace dilemma. The Pace Projector is predicting that the early fractions will favor front-runners Bluegrass Chat and Patton Proud. However, both of these horses are extremely dubious propositions at short prices as they are plunging in class off terrible efforts. Either can win, but I could also see a scenario where they fall apart and thus open the race up to some late runners. I’m hoping that’s the case, because I think the most interesting runner in this field is Wizardly. I just feel that he’s been keeping the best company out of all of these horses, and he actually showed some signs of life off the trainer switch last time. I know the distance is a question, but he’s run well around one turn on multiple occasions, and I think he can mow them all down in the stretch.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5,7
 
 

RACE 4: COURNOYER (#8)
The horse to beat is Light the Vow, who has generally run the fastest speed figures. He almost got the job done when dropped to this level last time, and figures to be tough once again. However, I do believe he’s facing a tougher field here. Chris Englehart has two entrants and they’re both interesting. Algorix is the one likely to take more money as he drops out of maiden special weight company. He actually didn’t run that badly after getting shuffled back on the turn and running through kickback in the stretch. He gets Lasix for the first time, as does his longer-priced stablemate Cournoyer. This recent claim cuts back in distance after failing to negotiate two turns last time. However, his prior races around one turn are actually not as bad as they might appear. He blew the break first time out, and then finished just five lengths out of third place in the toughest New York- bred maiden race all meet on Feb. 18. The blinkers get removed today, and I think he could offer some value in this spot.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,4,5,7
 
 

RACE 5: THREE EIGHTY EIGHT (#2)
No Hayne No Gayne is obviously the horse to beat at what figures to be a short price around even-money. She has run well in all of her starts, but finally put it all together last time when she wore down Decorator Jenn in the closing strides. That filly came back to improve her speed figure slightly when finishing second in another race. Steve Asmussen has excellent numbers in New York with runners coming off a maiden win, but No Hayne No Gayne will have to avoid getting caught up in a pace that should be honest. I’m taking a shot against her with Three Eight Eight, who I just think is in slightly better form than it appears. She was compromised by a wide trip two back and then could not overcome a moderate pace last time. I don’t mind the turnback to a one-turn mile since she won going even shorter last fall.

Win: 2
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with ALL
 
 

RACE 7: SKY CHAPARRAL (#2)
Kohlhase is predicted to be in a favorable position setting the pace through moderate early fractions, but I wonder if he’s good enough to take this field all the way. He had to work awfully hard to hold off weaker foes last time and must run a faster race today for the always dangerous Rudy Rodriguez barn. The other runner likely to take money, Manipulated, looks formidable at first glance, but he’s gotten pretty good trips in his races and I prefer others. My top selection is Sky Chaparral, who may not have loved racing over the inner track. I thought he ran deceptively well last time, making a wide late run on a day when you wanted to be on the rail. If he can run back to his race over the main track here last November, he’ll be a major threat to pull off the upset.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,7,8
Trifecta: 2 with 4,7,8 with 1,4,6,7,8
 
 

RACE 8: VERVE’S TALE (#3)
Isabelle is going to be a heavy favorite in this spot off her lopsided win in the Heavenly Prize last month. However, March 4 was a day that was strongly favoring inside speed, and Isabelle rode that bias to victory. The same was true when she finished second to Super Surprise two back, so I don’t think she actually has as much room for error as it appears. I’m trying to beat her with Verve’s Tale, who probably needed her return race at Gulfstream last time. She was uncharacteristically eager in the early going, dragging Paco Lopez into the lead. She tired late, but should have gotten some needed fitness out of that effort. If she can get back to her performance in the Comely over this racetrack, when she beat the talented Lewis Bay, she will probably win this race.

Win: 3
Trifecta: 3 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,5,6