by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 3: ADULATOR (#2)
The two main players in this spot are Adulator and Governor Malibu. The latter is the more accomplished of the two runners, having placed in both the Peter Pan and Jim Dandy stakes last year. Those efforts were sandwiched around an unlucky fourth-place finish in the Belmont Stakes. His best effort can win this race, but he has a few hurdles to overcome. He appears to be at his best racing around two turns, and he noticeably tailed off at the end of last season. Adulator figures to go off at a slightly better price, and I prefer him here. I can excuse his return at Gulfstream since he may have just needed the race, and he didn’t run particularly well over that surface last year. A one-turn mile is the perfect distance for this horse, and he possesses the tactical speed to stay within range of the pacesetters early.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,6
Trifecta: 2 with 6 with ALL
 
 

RACE 5: HIGHWAY STAR (#2)
Carrumba is the headlining name in this bunch, but she doesn’t face the easiest task in her first start back off the layoff. She hasn’t been seen for more than eight months and put in a fairly dull effort in her most recent start at Saratoga. Shug McGaughey elects to bring her back at seven furlongs, which is clearly not her best distance. Her class may carry her to victory, but I think there are more attractive options at better prices. My top pick is Highway Star. This filly was way against the grain of the track when chasing three wide against a rail bias in the Ladies Handicap. I’m willing to just ignore that effort because she had previously run so well over this surface in the Go for Wand. This New York-bred is best around one turn and figures to sit a great trip stalking Kelsocait and Clipthecouponannie.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5,6
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with 1,5,6
 
 

RACE 6: ONE MO CHANCE (#6) / WONDERMEISTER (#3)
This is one of the most difficult races on the card, and there are many runners to consider. I want to focus on two runners. The one who is likely to go off at the shorter price is One Mo Chance, who was unlucky to find himself in one of the toughest New York-bred maiden races run over the inner track in years. He was no match for the top two that day, but he ran on well to finish more than two lengths out of third place. He has some stamina breeding on the dam’s side, so I’m not worried about the stretch-out, and Linda Rice gets a 100 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with second-time starters. The other horse I want to use is longshot Wondermeister. While he was beaten by a few of today’s rivals in his debut, I feel that he had the most taxing trip. March 11 was a day that you wanted to be down inside, yet Wondermeister was racing three to four wide throughout. All things considered, I thought he finished up decently. He’s a half-brother to route winners on dirt and turf, so the added distance is not supposed to be a problem.

Win: 6
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3,6 with 1,3,6,9,10
 
 

RACE 8: MACAGONE (#6)
Assuming this race stays on turf, Catapult is going to be awfully tough to beat. He ran well enough against a tougher field at Tampa Bay Downs last time and owns a win over this quirky course. However, I think there’s a far more interesting horse in this race who figures to go off at a much more generous price. Macagone absolutely adores the Aqueduct turf course, as he displayed last year, winning this race in the spring and the Artie Schiller in the fall. Bill Mott took him down to Gulfstream this winter, and everything went wrong for him. He got a terrible ride two back when he was unwisely rated and got hung out wide around both turns. Then, last time, he was shuffled back early and somehow found himself in last place heading around the far turn. This horse is fast enough to be in front early, and Kendrick Carmouche needs to use his speed today. If he works out the trip, he’s talented enough to upset Catapult.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,7
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with ALL

 
 

RACE 9: HOLIDAY DISGUISE (#4)
Holiday Disguise ran like your typical Linda Rice first-time starter who needed a race in its debut. I actually think that was a pretty solid field she was facing, as runner-up Downtown at Noon returned to improve her speed figure by nine points in her subsequent start. Holiday Disguise was not ridden particularly hard to get into the race, but she nevertheless was finishing well through the stretch and galloped out past the leaders. She should appreciate the seven furlongs, and Rice does a superb job with her second-time starters (100 Trainer Rating).

Win: 4