by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 3: DAISY CUTTER (#6) – CHORUS LINE (#1)
Daisy Cutter is very much the horse to beat as she lands in this unusually weak N1X allowance race. While it’s true that there isn’t much pace to close into, it’s not as if she needs to lose contact with the field early. She closed well into a slow pace last time and a repeat of that effort is probably good enough to get the job done today. I want to use her primarily with Chorus Line, who does have a chance to spring the upset. She earned one of the fastest speed figures in the field two back, and her last race is not actually the regression that it appears to be. She got stuck in traffic coming past the quarter pole and certainly would have finished closer had her rider been able to get her outside. The distance is a question mark, but she’s talented enough to win this race.

Exacta Box: 1,6
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with 2,4
Trifecta: 1,6 with 2,4 with 1,6

RACE 4: DESERTED (#2)
Tiznow's Smile is clearly the most likely winner of this race as she finally stretches out to the two turns that she's seemingly been asking for since her debut. However, she figures to be a short price once again, and it's not as if her opponents are completely devoid of talent. Some will look to second-time starter My Girl Annie as an alternative, and for good reason. She ran well in a relatively strong maiden race in her debut. However, her pedigree is geared more towards sprinting, so I'm a little dubious about the distance. At a much bigger price, I'd rather take a shot with Deserted, who ships in from Parx. This filly took a significant step forward when finally stretched out to a mile last time, earning the second highest speed figure in the race. That performance came against open company and now she makes her first start against New York-breds. In a race where so many lack experience, I feel reasonably confident that she's going to be around at the finish— and she just might get there first.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,7
Trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with ALL

RACE 5: STONESCAPE (#7)
There appear to be four horses that can win this race. Skill Not Luck was placed over his head in his first dirt start off the claim and now drops back to the right level after a failed turf experiment. Bullheaded Boy has run dirt speed figures that would win this race, but a lack of pace in this race has to be a concern for backers of this deep closer. Banner Bill’s last race was inexplicably bad, but it did come against tougher company, and his prior races make him a factor. I’ll use all three, but the one I want most figures to go off at a slightly higher price. Stonescape faced comparable fields at Parx in his last two starts, and I don’t think he had a fair chance on either occasion. Two back he was steadied multiple times early in the race as his rider attempted to rate him. Then last time it appears that the rail might have been dead and he was down inside all the way over a dull and tiring track.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,4

RACE 6: ZEVEN (#2)
The only reason that I’m discussing this race is because there are plenty of turf horses entered that are going to take money based solely on turf form. Those include Magsamelia and Doukas, whose recent dirt races are nothing to write home about. The logical dirt horse may seem like Abounding Spirit, but she has faced weak fields at Finger Lakes and may need to step up her game. The only runner that I can possibly support is Zeven, who has actually run plenty of competitive dirt races and was able to successfully negotiate two turns earlier in her career. Angel Arroyo, who teams up for a 100 trainer rating with Jacobson, figures to be aggressive and stalk Magsamelia.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,7

RACE 7: MECKE’S MADALYN (#2)
The 2/1 morning line favorite is Super Surprise, who is coming off a disappointing loss as the favorite last time. However, that performance was clearly flattered by the winner, Highway Star, coming back to upset the Go For Wand last weekend. Super Surprise had previously won the Fleet Indian around two turns at Saratoga, so there’s no reason to be concerned with today’s distance. However, when looking back at that Fleet Indian, you could make a case that Mecke’s Madalyn didn’t run that much worse than the winner. Whereas Super Surprise looped the field, Mecke’s Madalyn got mired down inside and had to wait in traffic while losing momentum late. She’s clearly in the best form of her career right now, and she’s guaranteed to be a much better price than the favorite. I also have to use older horses like First Service, who stretches out, and Jules N Rome, who should appreciate getting back out to two turns, but they have to avoid setting a pace that’s too quick.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,7,8