>Visit TimeformUS for Sunday's Highlight Horse and PPs

by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 5: Claiming $40,000 at 8.5 furlongs on turf

The theme here is class droppers, as all of the main players are coming out of tougher allowance and stakes races. The horse to beat is Chamois (#9), who goes out for Christophe Clement and Aqueduct leading rider Jose Ortiz. This horse has made only two starts in 2016 and he's lost at relatively short prices on each occasion. Those races came over six months ago, and now he's dropping for a tag for the first time in his career, just as the turf season comes to a close. On the plus side, three of his four career wins have come right here at Aqueduct, and he even has handled turf courses that have taken some rain. He's the horse to beat, but he's not the easiest runner to trust.

I'll Call (#12) is taking a similar drop in class as he exits the Grade 3 Red Smith Handicap, but at least his most recent start came within the last month. This six-year-old gelding has actually been in pretty good form lately, but he still hasn't won during either of the past two seasons, and it appears as if his connections are just trying to find a spot where he can get to the winner's circle. I'll definitely use him, but I am somewhat concerned about the pace. The Pace Projector is predicting that it will be fast, and this horse is unlikely to wrest the early lead away from the speedy River Knight early.

I'd prefer to take a late runner, and the one that interests me most is EL JEFE GRANDE (#1). He's running for the same $40,000 tag that he was offered for last time at Laurel, but I think he finds himself in a more favorable situation today. As a late closer, he is completely dependent on race flow, and it appears that he should get an honest early clip to close into this time. That was not the case in October when the pace was slow (color-coded in blue), and he could never make an impact. Prior to that, he had been in over his head in two stakes races. I like that he’s previously handled this Aqueduct turf course late in the season, and he figures to go off at a much more generous price than the two aforementioned runners.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,9,10,12

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight at 6 furlongs

Sand City (#1) has done little wrong through two career starts, losing to a couple of well-meant first-time starters. However, she wasn’t able to take a step forward off her debut last time when disappointing as the 6/5 favorite. Perhaps she’ll offer a better performance today, but it’s not as if she has any major speed figure edge based on those two starts. Actually, the runner coming into this race with the highest last-out speed figure is MAZMANIA (#5), who survived a fast pace to hang on for second last time while finishing far ahead of the runner she dueled with early. That was her first start on a fast track, which she is going to get again today. I like that they named an aggressive rider like Aaron Gryder, and she is the one to catch at what should be a decent price. I’ll use her with the favorite, as well as second-time starters Cetara (#2) and Archumybaby (#4), and intriguing first-time starter No Hayne No Gayne (#8).

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4,8

Race 8: Allowance at 6.5 furlongs

Felini (#7) is a deserving favorite as she tries winners for the first time, but I wonder if she’s going to be a shorter price than she really deserves to be. Her last two races were hardly the strongest maiden heats that we saw contested at Saratoga and Belmont—especially last time, when she faced four badly overmatched rivals. She’s fast enough to win today, but her margin for error is small. I’m taking a shot against her with another recent maiden winner.

BOMBSHELL (#4) makes her dirt debut after an encouraging win at first asking over the synthetic track at Woodbine. That day, she made a determined run from the back of the pack and really finished well after switching leads a few times in the late stages. Now she switches to the barn of Jimmy Jerkens, who has great success at Aqueduct (90 trainer rating). However, what really intrigues me is the surface switch, since this filly has a strong dirt pedigree. She’s a half-sister to stakes-placed dirt sprinter Little Distorted, and her second dam is Kentucky Oaks runner-up Santa Catarina.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,7,9