by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card's Highlight Horse and PPs.

RACE 3: SARATIAGO (#6)
I'm not saying anything particularly clever in pointing out that Ice Palace and Time Squared are the two most likely winners. However, neither of these fillies is going to be a particularly enticing price, and there is one other contender who I think deserves a look at more generous odds. Longshot Saratiago is the only other horse in this field with positive route experience. I know her recent form is not that inspiring, but she has been facing much tougher fields than the one she meets today. Furthermore, her race two back was actually not that bad, and she earned a competitive 90 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the effort. Then, last time, she had little chance in a race dominated by horses with speed. She’s the third-most-likely winner, in my opinion, but I think her price will make her worth a bet.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4
 
 

RACE 4: INVESTIGATOR (#4)
I suppose Dogtown is a deserving favorite off his fast win last time, but I think this is a tougher spot. His main rival, Tipit, did not fire in that race, and he was able to dominate some overmatched rivals. The TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates that he could have a pace advantage again today, especially if the other speed, In Equality, concedes the lead, but I still want to take a small shot against this horse with Investigator. He was hard ridden early to challenge for the lead in his last race and ultimately caused the pace to collapse. The winner, Kick Off, is just better than those horses, but Investigator never gave up, just missing third. He’s run plenty of competitive races around two turns, and Randi Persaud has sent out some live runners at this meet.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,6
 
 

RACE 5: NON STOP (#12) / MIGHTY ZEALOUS (#2)
I could easily write a long-form essay on this race – there’s that much going on. I’m against likely favorite Formal Summation, who beat an awful field last time. Instead, I’ll highlight a few longshots who I think may offer value. My top pick is Non Stop. This horse has run three races since returning from a lengthy layoff, and he’s really only had a fair chance in one of those. That was two back, when he caught a wet track that he likes and finished a decent third, earning a competitive speed figure. He figures to get another wet track this time and gets a subtly positive rider switch to an up-and-coming 10-pound bug rider. I also want to use Mighty Zealous, who was coming off a brief freshening when he ran at this level last time. The pace of that race was quite fast (indicated by red color-coding in TimeformUS PPs), and Mighty Zealous was aggressively ridden to make up ground into those swift early splits after getting away from the gate slowly. His premature move carried him all the way up into second place at the top of the stretch, at which point he was angled to the rail, which probably was not the place to be. He’s run competitive races in the past for other barns.

Win/Place: 2,12
Exacta Key Box: 2,12 with 2,3,10,11,12,13
 
 

RACE 6: SABRINA BALLERINA (#1)
If Sabrina Ballerina gets out of the gate today, I think she’s going to win. While she didn’t stumble badly last time, she did take an awkward step just out of the gate, which forced Angel Arroyo to adjust his plan and let the other speeds go. All things considered, I thought she did well to get back into the race and rally to be third. This filly is much more effective when she can get clear early, and I think that will be the game plan from this inside post. The TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates that she will have a pace advantage here.

Win: 1
Trifecta: 1 with 2,3 with 2,3,4,5
 
 

RACE 7: BENEVOLENCE (#5)
Benevolence is supposed to break through his N1X allowance condition here after running much better than it appears in his two previous attempts at this level. He was completely eliminated at the start two back, when he was bumped and squeezed back. He nevertheless put in a solid late run to get up for fifth behind a few of today’s rivals. Then, last time, his rider made no attempt to get early position and allowed Benevolence to go four wide around the entire far turn. According to Trakus, he covered 43 more feet than the winner, Foreset, who beat him by only a half-length. I like the rider switch to Irad Ortiz and would hope to see him aggressively ridden into a stalking position early. If he works out any kind of trip, I believe he’ll win.

Win: 5
Exacta Box: 1,5
Trifecta: 5 with 1,2,4 with 1,2,3,4,7