by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 3: STEADY HEAT (#4)
After looking like a runner that was poised to break out of the maiden ranks following his strong effort Oct. 27, Light the Vow just has not been able to get back to that effort in subsequent starts. He had his chances against maiden special weight company and now gets a logical drop in class. He’s the horse to beat, but I’m more interested in one of the lightly raced runners. Steady Heat finished behind Light the Vow last time, but he got the wrong ride that day. For whatever reason, Dylan Davis took a hard hold of him out of the gate and was intent on wrangling him to the back of the pack. This runner was sent in his debut despite getting bumped hard at the start and actually ran deceptively well. I like the jockey switch to Rajiv Maragh, who tends to send horses with speed.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5
 
 

RACE 4: NO HAYNE NO GAYNE (#5)
The entry is going to be a very short price, as both have strong chances to win. My Girl Annie may have been hindered racing two-wide against a gold rail last time, whereas Easy Way Out was racing on that gold rail last time and just didn’t have any punch late. They can win, but I think others offer better value. No Hayne No Gayne was most hindered by a wide trip in the Jan. 14 race and then came back to run pretty well when stretched out in distance. She was chasing a fast pace that day and hung in well until the final furlong. Perhaps My Girl Annie will show speed here, but I like to think Kendrick Carmouche will be intent on getting to the front with No Hayne No Gayne. If she can clear off in front, I believe she’ll be tough to run down.

Win: 5
Trifecta: 1,5 with 1,5 with 2,3
Trifecta: 5 with 2,3 with 1
 
 

RACE 5: DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING (#2)
Matrooh is the best horse running on this card. This runner was in spectacular form at the end of 2015, winning the Bold Ruler before finishing a game third behind the almighty Tonalist in the Cigar Mile. If he runs back to either of those efforts, he is probably going to win this race. However, he’s now a 7-year-old gelding, and I think there’s at least one interesting alternative if he underperforms. Doyouknowsomething ran extremely well to win two back. I know that the rail was good that day, but he set a strong pace and really had to dig in to hold off an in-form Send It In. While it looks like he regressed last time, I’m not sure that he actually did. He was racing two- to three-wide against the gold rail Jan. 14 and did well to hang with winner Sunny Ridge until the late stages. Today he figures to be the main speed again and the Pace Projector is forecasting a scenario that favors the frontrunner.

Win: 2
Trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with ALL
 
 

RACE 7: CAUSE FOR SURPRISE (#6)
Alright Alright is predicted to be the fastest of the speeds signed on for this race. He’s coming off a big win over a muddy track just a week ago, in which he earned a field-best 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. If he runs that race back he will probably win, but this is a tougher spot and I’m a little skeptical. I’m taking a small shot against the favorites with Cause for Surprise. This runner just got the wrong trip last time when Alan Garcia, after sending him up to contest the early pace, elected to rein him in heading to the far turn. Cause for Surprise resented being put into tight quarters and was steadied out of the race. Today he should be able to stalk outside and he gets a rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3
 
 

RACE 8: BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON (#4)
The Pace Projector is predicting that Stormin Monarcho will have a pace advantage as the lone speed in this race, but I’m slightly against him. He had everything go his way last time when he was able to get the first jump on Backsideofthemoon, who was unfortunately stymied in behind tiring runners at a critical point around the far turn. All things considered, I thought Backsideofthemoon did well to nearly catch Stormin Monarcho at the wire, and he’s the one I want today. I wish the connections had named a higher-profile rider, but at least this pilot will ensure that he’s a decent price again. Morning-line favorite Splashtastic has to be mentioned after he overcame a bias to win last time. I actually think this horse might be good enough to handle the step up in class, but I just don’t expect him to offer the necessary value.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3
Trifecta: 4 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,6,8