by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 5: MACHO MIAH (#1)
The three runners likely to attract the most support are drawn toward the outside. Sal the Turtle probably deserves to be the favorite. He’s done very little wrong in his short career, winning two of his three starts while only losing to the talented New York-bred sprinter Gold for the King. His main rivals, Tribecca and Remstin, exit the same race Dec. 13. That was a day that was strongly favoring inside speed, so Tribecca was very much with the flow of the track, whereas Remstin was chasing off the rail. I prefer Remstin, but I want to take a small shot against all three of these runners with a horse who may get overlooked in the wagering. If Sal the Turtle deserves credit for finishing close to Gold for the King, shouldn’t we also consider Macho Miah? This Jeremiah Englehart trainee lost to that foe by no more than a few lengths in consecutive stakes races last year. He ended his 2-year- old season with a disappointing finish in the Damon Runyon, but this is probably a horse who wants no part of two turns. He also may not have cared for a wet track that was favoring runners with speed. If the top three choices in the wagering hook up early, Macho Miah should be well positioned to run them down late at a price.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,6
 
 

RACE 6: ROBBINS (#4)
The two shortest prices on the morning line are Saraab and Miggsy, both of whom have only sprinted so far in their careers. Saraab seems more likely to stretch out successfully. His dam was a capable router, and she’s a full sister to two-time Whitney champion Commentator. Miggsy had to overcome a rail bias last time out, but I’m less confident that he wants to go two turns. The logical trip horse is Into the Breach, who did well to finish second behind Apartfromthecrowd after working out a three-wide trip around both turns. He’s run well in both route attempts and is the most likely winner today. However, at a bigger price, I’m just as interested in Robbins, who finished just behind him last time. This horse was making his first start beyond 6 1/2 furlongs last time and clearly appreciated the added ground. Furthermore, like Into the Breach, he was never racing on the rail and had to rally three wide into the stretch. He hasn’t yet proven he’s quite this good, but he’s going to be a bigger price and may have more upside.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,6,7
 
 

RACE 7: LOYAL HEART (#7)
The two top choices on the morning line, Smile Big and She’s So Fine, figure to be tough to beat. Smile Big overcame that Jan. 13 rail bias to finish a decent second at this level last time, and She’s So Fine steps up in class after putting in a dazzling stretch run against weaker foes. Both of these fillies look pretty formidable, but I want to highlight a longshot, Loyal Heart. I’m hardly suggesting that this race’s Top Play is more likely to win than the two aforementioned fillies, but I do believe she has a chance to crack the trifecta at a huge price. There is not much speed signed on for this event, and the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that should favor horses on or near the lead. That should help Loyal Heart, who was fast enough to make the lead at six furlongs two back. Last time, she lost all chance when she threw her head just as the gates opened and spotted the field many lengths. All things considered, she did well to get up for third. This is tougher spot, but she appears to be in good form and has a pace advantage.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,5,10
Trifecta: 4,5,10 with 2,4,5,10 with 7
 
 

RACE 9: MAJESTIC ISLAND (#4)
I suppose Katie Ice is the horse to beat off her dominant maiden win last time, but I want to see her repeat that effort before backing her against winners. She had never run quite that well before, and the second-place finisher did regress slightly in her next start. With speeds like Esther the Queen, Devil’s Timepiece, and Ocean Conquest in the mix, I’m hoping that the early pace is at least fair. That could help set things up for my pick, Majestic Island. I know her two starts in New York have been disappointing, but she deserves one more chance. She was badly compromised by a slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding) in her sprint two back and then just didn’t handle two turns last time. She’s getting some logical class relief here and does have prior sprint efforts that make her a contender.

Win: 4