by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 2: CHINA RIDER (#6)
Full House is a trip handicapper’s kind of horse. Her short chart comment makes no mention of any trouble, but she actually had a pretty difficult trip for a first-time starter. She was off near the back of the pack, had to steady, and then made a prolonged early move to reach contention on the far turn. She was never fully clear late, but finished decently to be third. She’s certainly bred to be precocious as a full-sister to the once highly regarded Classy Class. I have to use her, but Jimmy Jerkens does not have great numbers with second-time starters, and she won’t offer much value. Instead, I’m taking a shot with China Rider. I don’t know why they were so intent on stretching this filly out in distance, but now she’s getting back to what she does best: sprinting on dirt. It’s also worth noting that her last race was not as bad as it looks since she was three-wide for much of the way while against a rail bias.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,4
Trifecta: 3,6 with 3,6 with 1,2,4,5

RACE 3: SAND SHARK (#2)
If Libby’s Tail is able to repeat her runner-up effort in the Grade 1 Frizette, she is probably going to win this race. However, that was at a one-turn mile and she did not seem to handle the stretch-out to two turns in the Demoiselle last time. It’s also worth pointing out that Rudy Rodriguez has cooled off considerably after sending out nothing but winners at the start of the inner track meet. Lockdown will take money, but she was very much with the flow of a biased racetrack when she won her debut last time. I prefer the other recent maiden winner, Sand Shark. I know Todd Pletcher’s horses seem to run exceptionally well at Gulfstream and are often not as effective elsewhere. I still liked this filly’s maiden-breaking score last time. She earned a competitive 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure while beating a good horse in Pray for Bourbon. Sand Shark is certainly bred to stretch out in distance since her dam is a half-sister to the multi-millionaire router Behrens. Furthermore, Todd Pletcher has great numbers over the past five years with horses that won their maidens last time out trying a route for the first time on dirt (DRF Formulator Fact: 23/58, 40%, $2.48 ROI).

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5
Trifecta: 2 with 3,5 with ALL

RACE 7: LITTLE SCHMO (#1)
Alright Alright is the wild card in this field. He’s a short price on the morning line, and deservedly so. His dirt speed figures in California are simply faster than those of his rivals in this race. That said, he did not beat the strongest field when winning two back in November, and it remains to be seen how he will handle the transition to the East Coast. If you don’t trust him, the obvious alternative is Manipulated. This horse did have legitimate trouble two back, but he’s the kind of runner that tends to make riders look bad since he’s difficult to maneuver. I also wonder if there’s enough pace in this race to set up his late kick. While my top pick may not be quite as good as either of the top two, I think Little Schmo could work out the right trip today. That was not the case last time when he broke about a length slowly and raced wide against the gold rail of Dec. 17. You can throw out that effort. He had previously run a competitive speed figure two back, and I think he’s improved for Michelle Nevin. This time, he should be the runner in closest attendance to Alright Alright early, and can take over if that one falters.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,5,7

RACE 8: WILBURNMONEY (#6)
Three of the fillies in this field contested the Key Cents Stakes in November at Aqueduct. Tainted Angel finished ahead of Bliss to You and Wilburnmoney that day, but she also had by far the softest trip of the three. The one that I want out of that race is Wilburnmoney, who finished sixth. Very little went right for this filly as she was off about a length slowly and was shuffled back through the opening furlong, ultimately finding herself in last place, detached from the rest of the field. She appeared to be uncomfortable with all of the kickback, and Jose Ortiz wisely steered her to the outside on the far turn. Once she got clear, she actually made a long, sustained run to pass half of the field. All things considered, this was an encouraging effort. She figures to show more speed than that in this spot, though she doesn’t necessarily need the lead. I’ll use her with recent maiden winner Mizzen Max, as well as the two others out of the Key Cents.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,5,7
Trifecta: 6 with 4,5,7 with 1,4,5,7,9