by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 4: RANSOM NOTE (#2)
It’s necessary to watch the start of the first race on Dec. 11. There was a massive pileup of horses coming together just after the break. In fact, the only two runners who were unaffected were the ones breaking from the inside and outside post positions, and they just so happened to be the two across the line first. One of those was Chosen One Elijah, so I’m against him today. Among those who had trouble at the break was the odds-on favorite, Altesino. While he did well to get back into the race and finish third, the horse who finished just behind him ran equally as well and may have more room for improvement. Ransom Note (#2) may have taken the worst of it at the start and raced a bit greenly thereafter. All things considered, he probably got a lot out of the race and figures to move forward for Linda Rice, who gets a 100 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with her second-time starters.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,7

RACE 6: TAPA LIATH (#3) / ANDESINE (#9)
It’s hard to know what to make of the seventh race on Dec. 7. That day is color-coded as light blue in TimeformUS PPs, indicating that the track was slightly favoring closers. Indeed, watching back the day’s races, it was apparent that horses in outside paths had an advantage in nearly every race – except the seventh. That race was won by a horse who rode the rail throughout. Was it just an aberration, or an indication that the track was not as biased as it appeared? Either way, it’s not a race on which I want to place too much significance. That’s why I’m inclined to focus on two horses who did not run that well there but have prior races that make them competitive here. Both Tapa Liath (#3) and Andesine (#9) had been in good form prior to not handling the track on Dec. 7, and they figure to go off at decent prices today.

Win: 3,9
Exacta: 3,9 with 3,4,8,9,10
Trifecta: 3,9 with 3,9 with 4,8,10

RACE 7: HOUSE OF FRIENDS (#6)
Blameiton Brooklyn is 4-5 on the morning line, and perhaps he’s supposed to be that strong of a favorite. After all, he earned the highest last-out TimeformUS Speed Figure in his prior start, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he’ll be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. On the other hand, his big win last time out came over a muddy track, and he is stepping up to face winners for the first time. Given what should be a massive difference in price, I want to take a shot against him with House of Friends (#6). This horse has run speed figures that at least put him in the mix, and his last race is not as bad as it might appear at first glance. He was shuffled back on the turn and had to alter course in the stretch. He finished only a length out of second place. Since then, he’s recorded a bullet workout for a trainer who notched a win earlier this week. He also gets an interesting rider switch to an apprentice who has been aggressive with limited opportunities. Perhaps he’s the horse who applies pressure to the favorite early.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,8
Trifecta: 1,4,8 with 1,4,8 with 6

RACE 8: CELTIC CHAOS (#2) / GIANTINTHEMOONLITE (#6)
Championofthenile is clearly the horse to beat, but it’s fair to wonder whether we’re going to see his best performance in his first start back off a lengthy layoff. Furthermore, he’s going to have to deal with pace pressure from True Bet and Bluegrass Prevails. While I’ll use the favorite defensively, I see two alternatives at decent prices. My top pick is Celtic Chaos (#2), who should finally get some pace to run into in this spot. He’s been in two straight races that have just not set up for a late runner such as him. This was especially true last time when they crawled through the opening furlongs (note the pace coded blue in TimeformUS PPs), and he actually did well to get as close as he did at the finish. This horse has been in deceptively good form, and I think he’s sitting on a breakout performance. At an even bigger price, I also want to put a few dollars on longshot Giantinthemoonlite (#6). I know that his recent form is not terribly inspiring, but he’s getting a major trainer switch to Charlton Baker, who excels with runners coming off layoffs (94 TimeformUS Trainer Rating). He’s run some decent races in his career and has put in strong performances off layoffs in the past.

Win: 2
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 2,6 with 1,2,6,9