by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 2: RIGHT BEN (#7)
Morning-line favorite Italian Syndicate made a somewhat successful return from a four-month layoff last time, finishing second at this level. However, it was basically a two-horse race between the winner and him, and Margarita Sunrise absolutely dominated this ridgling. He can win here, but I prefer others. Of the horses coming out of the ninth race Nov. 9, the one who I want is Right Ben. The rail was not the place to be that day at Aqueduct, and he was battling for the lead while racing down inside the entire way. He had been overmatched in his prior maiden special weight races, and I like that he showed some signs of life with the drop in class last time. He drew a better post position toward the outside and should be a square price.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,8

RACE 4: LITTLE SCHMO (#3)
Timber has been installed as the morning-line favorite off the strength of his win here a few weeks ago, in which he overcame a strong rail bias to get the job done. He is probably the horse to beat, and Chris Englehart does have great numbers second off the claim (90 TimeformUS Trainer Rating). However, we liked him last time at odds of 6-1 and now have to stomach a short price as he moves up in class. I’ll use him defensively, but I prefer another horse as my top selection. Little Schmo was also against the rail bias on Dec. 17. The difference is that he performed poorly that day and is going to be a bigger price in this spot. Little Schmo was off about a length slowly in that spot and could never recover as he raced wide throughout. His prior effort was quite good and certainly fast enough to beat a horse like Timber. Furthermore, the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that this race will favor horses who are racing on or near the lead early, and Little Schmo is more than capable of taking them wire-to-wire.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 6,7

RACE 6: WILBURNMONEY (#6)
Three of the fillies in this field contested the Key Cents Stakes in November at Aqueduct. Tainted Angel finished ahead of Bliss to You and Wilburnmoney that day, but she also had by far the softest trip of the three. The one who I want out of that race is Wilburnmoney, who finished sixth. Very little went right for this filly as she was off about a length slowly and was shuffled back through the opening furlong, ultimately finding herself in last place, detached from the rest of the field. She appeared to be uncomfortable with all of the kickback, and Jose Ortiz wisely steered her to the outside on the far turn. Once she got clear, she actually made a long, sustained run to pass half of the field. All things considered, this was an encouraging effort. She figures to show more speed than that in this spot, though she doesn’t necessarily need the lead. I’ll use her with recent maiden winners Karen Kan and Mizzen Max as well as the two others out of the Key Cents.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,7,8,9

RACE 8: REPENT TWICE (#10) / RIFF RAFF (#4)
This is probably the most interesting race on the card. Fox Rules comes in as a deserving favorite off a strong effort at Finger Lakes. That day, he was forced to chase the speedy Crackerjack Jones through fast early fractions (indicated by the red color-coding) before putting that foe away and holding off the closers. Now he gets a positive trainer switch to Michelle Nevin and is offered up for the $40,000 claiming tag. I’ll certainly use him, but my top selection is Repent Twice. This guy lands in Charlton Baker’s barn after a series of layoffs. Going back to last winter, Repent Twice was in career form, putting in his reliable late run on multiple occasions. I can excuse his last start at Finger Lakes – his first in more than eight months – and believe that he can rebound here as long as some pace materializes up front. That said, I also want to use the stretch-out Riff Raff at what should be an even larger price. I know I’m late to the party as he got the job done at 70-1 last time, but he nevertheless ran quite well that day and has proven he can handle a route of ground in the past. Almost every horse to run back out of that race has improved their speed figures – TimeformUS and Beyer – next time out. I wouldn’t take this horse lightly despite the low-profile connections.

Win/Place: 4,10
Exacta Key Box: 4,10 with 2,4,6,10,11