by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 4: POP THE HOOD (#7)
Celtic Chaos is clearly the horse to beat off his strong effort in the Hollie Hughes against a tougher field than the one he meets here. However, for a deep closer like him, he has gotten two fantastic rides from Eric Cancel in his last two starts, saving as much ground as possible and finding the necessary gaps in order to make his late run in the stretch. I respect him, but I do wonder if his luck can continue. For that reason, I went for his chief rival Pop the Hood. This horse has gotten back to his best form ever since returning from the layoff this winter. He ran shockingly well against an overmatched field two back and then backed that effort up with an even stronger effort last time. For whatever reason, he was not aggressively ridden in the early going last time, and the plan backfired as he was forced to race four wide around the far turn. I’m hoping they use his speed today because the Pace Projector indicates that he’s fast enough to go with the speeds to his inside early.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 4,7 with 4,7 with 2,3,5,6
 
 

RACE 6: TWOFREEKNIGHTS (#8)
I’m just not enamored with the favorites in this race. Jetsam Six is going to take play off the claim by Danny Gargan, who is dangerous in these situations, but I’m not convinced that this filly really wants to go two turns, and she’s now lost as odds-on favorite in three consecutive races. I slightly prefer the other logical runners, Wonderful Savvy and Gobi, but I have an interesting longshot idea that I’d rather focus on. Twofreeknights really improved stretching out in distance, and I’m not sure that’s as apparent as it should be in her past performances. When she broke her maiden two back, that was one of those weird situations we see from time to time in which the first race of the day came up exceptionally slow – perhaps too slow. After all, the second- and third-place finishers returned to significantly improve their speed figures in subsequent starts, indicating that perhaps Twofreeknights ran better than it appears. Then, last time, she was somehow three- to four-wide throughout on a day when there was an intense rail bias. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace here and this is one of the few closers in the field. At a huge price, I’m taking a shot. v

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,4,5
Trifecta: 1,2,4,5 with 1,2,4,5 with 8
 
 

RACE 7: TIMBER (#3)
I’m a little concerned about the pace of this race, because there isn’t much of it. That said, I just can’t bring myself to take likely speeds Mystical Song and Baby Bear’s Soup. I’m instead most interested in the two closers drawn just to their outside and the one that I want the most is Timber. This horse ran extremely well to win two back when overcoming the intense rail bias that was in effect Dec. 17. Then, last time, he was compromised by getting squeezed back at the start in a race that did not exactly set up for late runners. He also had the misfortune of running into an improved Pop the Hood. I love the confidence that Chris Englehart shows by stepping him up into a protected spot, and I’d rather take him instead of American Road, who has a tendency to finish second.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,7,8
 
 

RACE 8: SPLASHTASTIC (#9) / TURCO BRAVO (#7)
The Stymie is always one of my favorite races of the winter, so it’s encouraging to see this year’s edition draw such a diverse group of runners. This really is as intriguing a handicapping puzzle as you’ll find on the inner track. While I respect logical players such as Send It In and Sunny Ridge, I do want to highlight a couple of longer prices in this field that may get overlooked in the wagering. If you like Diversify stepping up in class, why wouldn’t you also give a serious look to Splashtastic, who has also won four races in a row and done so against some tougher fields? Splashtastic draws an outside post position here, but he’s a horse that seems to run well when he can get into the clear. He does not possess a great turn of foot, so I was encouraged to see him outfinish the in-form Testosterstone last time despite finding running room very late. I’ve always thought that more distance would help this rangy son of Tiz Wonderful, so I’m pleased to see him finally get to go 9 furlongs. He’s my top pick, but I also want to use two-time defending Stymie winner Turco Bravo at an even bigger price. This horse’s last race at Laurel feels like a classic prep race, and he was in great form prior to the layoff last year. This horse has come back from poor performances in the past, and he figures to be running on late if the pace heats up.

Win/Place: 9
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,3,5,7,8
Trifecta: 9 with 1,5,7 with 1,3,5,7,8