by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 1: COURNOYER (#1)
If Cournoyer handles the stretch-out in distance – and there is evidence that he will – I don’t know how he loses this race. You can throw out his debut when he was left in the gate and ultimately declared a non-starter. He was dismissed at huge odds in his second start but actually didn’t run that badly in one of the toughest, fastest New York-bred maiden races ever run over the inner track. He was again off a tad slowly but made a mild late run to finish only five lengths out of third place. His sire, Shackleford, to whom this horse bears a resemblance, can produce runners with some stamina, and his dam was a multiple route winner. I’ll primarily use him with Right Ben, who ran better than it appears when setting a fast pace last time, as well as Save the Tigers, who had a ton of trouble in that same race.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5,6
Trifecta: 1 with 4,5 with 2,4,5,6
 
 

RACE 2: OLD UPSTART (#3)
Kid Cruz is the sort of horse whom you have to discuss because he has run plenty of races that would beat this field and is facing the softest group he’s met in quite some time. On the other hand, it feels like he’s going the wrong way, and I wonder if he’ll get enough pace to close into. Of the short prices, I prefer River Date and Indycott, but I have an alternative idea. Old Upstart has run competitive speed figures on occasion, and I think you can be somewhat forgiving of his recent form. I don’t know what happened two back, but he was so empty that day that I’m tempted to throw out the race. Last time, six furlongs is probably a bit short for him, and he got shuffled back early while racing behind a fairly slow pace. Furthermore, March 5 was a day when you really wanted to be on the rail, and Old Upstart was three to four wide.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4
 
 

RACE 6: SIR BOND (#6)
Mewannarose comes into this off two consecutive wins against similar company, but I’m a little skeptical of him at a short price. He rode inside biases to victory on both Jan. 13 and March 5, and I don’t think his form is quite as solid as it appears. Additionally, he is supposed to get some real pace pressure from Gentrify, given the rider switch to Kendrick Carmouche on that foe. I’m trying to beat the favorite with Sir Bond, who actually overcame an inside bias to win on Feb. 4. While that win came for $25,000, the 113 TimeformUS Race Rating assigned to that event suggests that it was every bit as tough as the $40,000 claimers that Mewannarose exits. I don’t mind the claim by Bruce Levine, who has had success with this horse in the past. Underneath him, I’ll also use Los Borrachos, who turns back in distance and faced tougher in his prior sprints.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,5
Trifecta: 6 with 1,5 with ALL
 
 

RACE 7: ONECATS CHANCE (#5)
Bullheaded Boy defeated both Taoiseach and Onecats Chance last time, but you can make a strong case that he only ran the third-best race that day. Taoiseach was racing down on a dead rail for much of his trip, while Onecats Chance was shuffled out of position on the backstretch and lost a ton of ground rallying on the far turn. Taoiseach gets an interesting trainer switch to Ray Handal and is a major contender to win, but I slightly prefer Onecats Chance. I thought he ran well to win last time while again overcoming a wide trip, and Chris Englehart has great numbers in this situation. According to DRF Formulator, he is 20 for 85 (24 percent) with a $3.49 ROI over the past five years with horses coming off wins on Aqueduct’s inner track.

WIN: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4,6
 
 

RACE 8: BANTY’S GIRL (#1)
Luna Rising is probably the horse to beat for Kiaran McLaughlin off a solid third in the Franklin Square against tougher company. However, she will have to deal with some speed to her outside today. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which may work against her. Luna Rising is also going to be a fairly short price in this wide-open race. I’m inclined to look elsewhere for a bit more value. My top pick is Banty’s Girl, who just didn’t want to go long last time but actually ran deceptively well two back in the Ruthless. She got a curious ride around the far turn that day, as she steadied at multiple points despite appearing to have running room. She then had trouble finding a clear path in the stretch and finished well for third late. She had previously run a competitive speed figure when defeating the talented runners Heavenly Score and Full House. I’ll use her with the aforementioned Luna Rising and Tainted Angel, who may also benefit from some pace.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,6,10