by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card's Highlight Horse and PPs.

RACE 4: SABRINA BALLERINA (#4)
Picture Day is likely to go favored here off the strength of her blowout win over this track a couple of weeks ago. She showed improved tactical speed in that race before taking over with ease at the quarter pole. A repeat of that performance gives her a big chance here, but she is taking a major step up in class, and there really isn’t that much pace to set up her late run. For that reason, I’m going to try to get Sabrina Ballerina to wire the field. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the early lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. I’m going to assume that she just didn’t handle the wet track last time, and in the race before, she hesitated at the start, which cost her any chance of making the early lead.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 2,3,5
 
 

RACE 5: WINGMAN (#4)
Acoustic and Bunyaan are likely to attract the most support. The former is really more of a turf horse and was facing a much weaker field last time. Bunyaan has faced tougher maiden special weight company since returning from the layoff, but I prefer a different horse dropping in class. Wingman has a lot of angles working for him in this spot. His trainer, Mike Hushion, has fantastic numbers with runners making this kind of move. He gets a 100 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden-claiming company and a 97 Trainer Rating with horses stretching out in distance. Furthermore, Wingman is bred to handle this stretch-out. Haynesfield is a surprisingly strong stamina influence, as his progeny win 27 percent of their route attempts after they turn 3 years old, according to DRF Formulator. Wingman is also a half-sibling to Divine Park, a Grade 1-winning router. Kendrick Carmouche is the perfect rider for this situation since he is adept at taking advantage of seemingly paceless situations.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,8
Trifecta: 4 with 1,8 with 1,2,5,7,8
 
 

RACE 6: KING OF ANYTHING (#1)
Mewannarose is going to be awfully tough to beat. He's making his first start off the claim by Rudy Rodriguez (a 100 Trainer Rating move), and the Pace Projector is predicting that he will have a sizable pace advantage in this spot. He figures to face some early pressure from Dad'z Laugh, who will be ridden by the aggressive apprentice Hector Diaz, but Mewannarose is supposed to be the faster horse. However, it is worth pointing out that Mewannarose's last race is not nearly as impressive as it looks. Jan. 13 was a day that was strongly favoring inside speed, and Mewannarose basically rode the bias to victory. He hasn't been seen in nearly seven weeks and returns at the same claiming level. He will probably win anyway, but I do see a viable alternative who could go off at a generous price. King of Anything ran deceptively well in his New York debut last time. I know that he was only racing for a $25,000 tag, but that was a particularly strong race for that level (note the 113 Race Rating), so this is not as much of a hike in class as it seems. King of Anything was off slowly in that race and raced very wide around the far turn on a day when horses making inside moves had an advantage. If he breaks cleanly here and repeats that last effort, he has a chance to pull off the upset at a generous price.

Win/Place: 1
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with ALL
Trifecta: 1,3 with ALL with 1,3
 
 

RACE 7: READY DANCER (#6)
I suppose that Lord Commander is going to take some play as he stretches out for Linda Rice. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be the controlling speed in a situation favoring horses on or near the lead. I’m not convinced that this horse really wants to go long, but Rice does have strong numbers in these situations. However, I want to go with her other runner, Ready Dancer. This horse was wide against a rail bias on Feb. 16 and actually ran quite well to be second. He has run plenty of back races that make him competitive here, and – based on his last effort – he might be moving in the right direction for the new barn.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,7