>Visit TimeformUS for Sunday's Highlight Horse and PPs

by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 1: Maiden Special Weight at 8.5 furlongs on turf

You could have interesting discussions about many in this race. Of those with prior turf route experience, the one that interests me most is also-eligible entrant MILLIES PARTY BOY (#13). This colt had quite the trip in his debut. Piloted by a low-percentage rider, he was taken to the back of the pack early, and then launched an ill-timed move towards the lead starting before the three-eighths pole. He lost a ton of ground while going wide and actually stayed on well through the stretch, all things considered. Now he gets a huge switch to Jose Lezcano. At a bigger price, another runner that I think deserves a look is IT MUST BE NICE (#9). I wouldn’t put too much stock in his lone turf effort, since he may just not be a sprinter. He showed good stamina to finish third on the dirt last time and now gets back to grass, a surface over which his dam won multiple times.

Win/Place: 9,13
Exacta Key Box: 9,13 with 3,7,8,9,13

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight at 7 furlongs

While I recognize that Easy Way Out is the horse to beat, since she did run quite well in her debut, I have an alternative idea that figures to offer slightly better value. FROSTY GAL (#8) made her dirt debut in her second start last time and just never really got a chance to run. She was rank behind a slow pace early after breaking from the rail—a difficult position to be in going seven furlongs. At multiple points, Manny Franco tried to get her to advance, but she always encountered traffic, and was forced to check a few times. She actually finished up decently for fourth. Now she’s drawn in the outside post position, and I think we’ll see her give a much more favorable account of herself today.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,4

Race 5: Allowance at 9 furlongs on turf

The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace here, but that characterization is largely dependent on stretch-out sprinter D’ Eloquent using his speed, which is no guarantee from his outside post position. I actually expect the riders involved to orchestrate a more moderate early clip, so I’m not so concerned about my top pick, BARTON HOLT (#9), needing to be forwardly placed. This horse’s last trip is worth watching. For whatever reason, after attaining a good stalking position early, Joel Rosario just reined in Barton Holt and let him steadily drop back through the pack, eventually finding himself in seventh, buried on the rail. When Joel Rosario finally got into him later in the stretch, he actually finished up nicely, outrunning some of the closers late. Now he gets blinkers on, which signals that they want to be more aggressive, and adds Lasix for the first time. This horse has run well in New York before, and I think he’s going to be tough to run down today.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,6,7
Trifecta: 9 with 3,6,7 with 1,2,3,6,7,10
Trifecta: 9 with 1,2,10 with 3,6,7

Race 8: The New York Stallions Stakes at 7 furlongs

This race is all about the three-year-old fillies for me. The one that is likely to attract the most play is Super Surprise, and she is indeed the horse to beat. However, she’s gotten absolutely perfect trips in both of her starts this year, and I don’t think she has much room for error. At a bigger price, I actually prefer the horse that lost to her in the Fleet Indian at Saratoga, HIGHWAY STAR (#3). I think she's improving at the right time, and she ran deceptively well in that two-turn stakes, disputing the fast pace (color-coded in red) before hanging on well late. I was pleased with the way she finished off a flat mile last time and I like that her connections are sticking with one-turn races.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4,7
Trifecta: 3 with 1,2,4,7 with 1,2,4,7