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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Race 4: Claiming $25,000 at 6.5 furlongs
I know that our Pace Projector indicates that Monster Mash and Blame Jim are the two horses with speed and will be tough to run down, but I don’t completely trust either one of them. Monster Mash was also with the race flow last time, and I actually thought he hung late in a field that bunched together at the end. Blame Jim won his last race at a time when Rudy Rodriguez was essentially untouchable. This barn has come back down to earth since then, and he’s in a tougher spot. I actually prefer a different horse out of that race. ERIK THE RED (#5) got pace to close into that day, but he still did well to make such a strong late run despite being badly positioned inside for the last half of the race. I love that Linda Rice steps him up in class, since she gets a 98 trainer rating with horses moving up in claiming price by 50% or more. The switch back to Jose Ortiz is also a good sign, since he tends to get Erik the Red more involved early.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,6
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight at 8 furlongs on turf
If there’s one horse in this race that could be set to take a big step forward today, I think it’s SNAP DECISION (#10). This colt ran deceptively well in his debut. Breaking from the outside post position, he never had any cover and launched a prolonged early move while going four-wide on the far turn. Shug McGaughey has excellent numbers with second-time starters, and this horse is certainly bred to improve with racing. He is a half-brother to Grade 1 winning turfer Mr Speaker, as well as up-and-coming allowance runner Fire Away. I expect Jose Ortiz to use more of his tactical speed from this outside post position today.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,7,8,11
Race 6: The Key Cents at 6 furlongs
The clear horse to beat is Kim Royale, whose debut speed figures suggest that she may just be better than her rivals. However, our Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and she’s going to have to run hard every step of the way to get it done. At much bigger prices, I’m interested in two closers. STRAWBERRY TEQUILA (#9) has yet to run a particularly fast race, but she feels like the kind of horse that’s just starting to put it all together. She was wide and against the race flow in the Joseph A. Gimma, and I really liked the way she finished in her maiden win last time.
She’s my top pick, but I could also use BLISS TO YOU (#10), whom I can excuse for her poor effort in the slop last time. She had previously run just fine in the Joseph A. Gimma, and she’s one of the few effective closers in this race.
Win/Place: 9,10
Exacta Key Box: 9,10 with 2,4,6,7,8,9,10
Trifecta: 7,9 with 7,9 with 2,4,6,8,10
Trifecta: 7,9 with 2,4,6,8,10 with 7,9
Race 7: Allowance at 11 furlongs on turf
I think this is primarily a two-horse race. The horse to beat is recent maiden winner Richmond Street (#9), who finally got the job done last time after running into some tough maiden fields prior to that. It was certainly no disgrace losing to repeat winners Deeply Undervalued and Sadler’s Joy two and three back. This horse is pretty good, but I think he’ll face a stiff challenge from MANITOULIN (#8), who is in better form than his last couple of races suggest. He didn’t get the right trip at Saratoga two back when he was wide around the far turn in a race dominated by horses closer to the pace and on the rail. Then last time, he was stuck in behind a wall of horses in the stretch of the Dueling Grounds Derby and may have finished closer if he had ever gotten clear.
Win: 8
Exacta Box: 8,9
Trifecta: 8,9 with 8,9 with 1,3,4
Trifecta: 8 with 1,3,4 with 9
Race 9: Maiden Special Weight at 8 furlongs on turf
There’s a lot of guesswork to be done here, with so many first-time starters in the mix, but I’m most intrigued by one that’s run already. LIGHTS OF MEDINA (#8) ran deceptively well in her debut, making a solid late run over a surface that was playing kindly to speed runners. We saw runner-up Ladies Day, who worked out a similar trip that day, come back to win in a vastly improved performance next time out. Lights of Medina galloped out strongly that day, and I think we’ll see a much better performance out of her here. This filly’s dam was best on turf, so I don’t mind this surface switch at all.
Win/Place: 8