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Race 4: Maiden Special Weight at 6.5 furlongs

I have to give one more shot to BLAME THE THIEF (#3), who was probably facing a tougher field last time and was also involved in a fast pace (color-coded in red) that fell apart. Today he figures to show speed once again with blinkers on and Javier Castellano aboard. Perhaps one of the first-time starters will have speed as well, but I think this Tim Hills trainee is a bit better than he’s shown thus far and may have landed in the right spot.

Win: 3

Race 5: Claiming $40,000 at 8.5 furlongs on turf

Nouvelle Vague (#2) is going to be a strong favorite here based on general faith in Chad Brown, but there’s not a lot to recommend about this horse based on her lone U.S. start. I have to use her, but I think there is value to be found elsewhere in this race. 

A number of runners are coming out of the eighth race on November 6, and the one that may have run the best on that occasion is runner-up ROSEDALE ARCH (#3), who is a major player today. She showed a new dimension coming from off the pace and did so in a race that did not set up for late runners. She’ll be a big part of my play, but my top pick is a runner that figures to offer even greater value. 

SARATIAGO (#9) has certainly had a lot of chances, but her last couple of turf races suggest that she may have turned a corner. She was against the pace on September 23, but was finishing fastest of all late while only losing to Table for Six—who would be a strong favorite here—by a length. Then last time she was again facing tougher company but was compromised by a four-wide run around the far turn. Rajiv Maragh has been riding the turf well lately, and I think he’ll be looking to save more ground today. If there’s any pace at all, I think she can make a late impact.

Win/Place: 9

Win: 3

Exacta Key Box: 3,9 with 2,3,7,9,10,12

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight at 8 furlongs

This is an extremely competitive race. Everybodyluvsrudy (#6) is the horse to beat based on his dirt form, but there are plenty of more interesting options to discuss, including turf-to-dirt runners like Fuel the Bern (#3) and Oiseau de Guerre (#5). 

I’ll use all of these, but I want to give a chance to second-time starter STRIDENT (#8). I know that these lightly-raced Shug McGaughey runners sometimes take more money than they should, but I think that this guy will be a decent price in this deep field. He’s obviously bred to stretch out in distance with that pedigree, and he just didn’t get a fair chance in his debut. The pace of that race was on the slow side, and he kept getting shuffled back whenever Jose Ortiz tried to get him into the clear on the far turn. Shug has taken his time bringing him back, and I think we’ll see a more professional effort today. 

Win/Place: 8

Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,5,6,9,10

Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming at 9 furlongs on turf

CHICADORO (#4) would be a lot easier to like here if that October 26 race had been her stateside debut. The pace was completely against her, and she actually did well to make as strong of a late run as she did, putting a huge gap between herself and the rest of the field despite not threatening the top two. Is that a true indication of her ability, and can we just excuse her disappointing first start in this country? I’m not totally convinced either way, but I do know that I prefer her to the other two fillies that are likely to attract support in this race. 

Quant (#3) had everything her own way on the lead when she broke her maiden last time, and Inchargeofme (#1) was third in a relatively weak allowance race at Keeneland last time.

Win: 4

Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3

Race 9: Maiden Special Weight at 8.5 furlongs on turf

CHURCH SOCIAL (#5) had been a bit of a disappointment up at Saratoga, but she really put things together last time back at Belmont. The pace was against her as the leaders set slow fractions (color-coded in blue). Church Social was far back in the early going after being squeezed out at the start. She was still left with plenty to do coming to the top of the stretch and appeared to be hopelessly beaten as the frontrunners spurted away off the far turn. However, once steered into the clear, Church Social unleashed a furious late rally to get up for third. She was absolutely flying across the finish line, running her last sixteenth in just over 5.5 seconds, according to Trakus. She had never before shown that kind of focus in the lane, so it's reasonable to assume the addition of blinkers may have improved her. 

Win: 5

Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,7,8