by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 4: MONTE MAN (#2)
Toohottoevenspeak and Proud Zip are likely to attract the most support, but I have some minor issues with both of them. Toohottoevenspeak has run plenty of competitive speed figures and is coming off a decent performance against what was arguably a tougher field at this level. However, he's won just one of his 18 starts while finishing in the money an additional 11 times, so he's hardly the most reliable win candidate. Proud Zip also has run races that should beat this field, but he can be somewhat inconsistent, and I'm not thrilled with the trainer switch to Gary Contessa, who gets just a 44 TimeformUS Trainer Rating off the claim. I'll instead take a shot with Monte Man. I like the claim by Steve Asmussen, whose barn does great work with his runners on the NYRA circuit. This horse has run better than it appears on a number of recent occasions, and I like the rider switch to Kendrick Carmouche, who may be able to get him involved earlier in the race.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4
 
 

RACE 5: CHORITE (#9)
The filly with the best proven turf form is Questeq, but she's pretty obvious in a race that has many other things going on. I haven't been thrilled with the turf form of any of these runners, so I'm taking a shot with first-time turfer Chorite. This filly didn't do any significant running in her debut last month, but her pedigree indicates that she could really take a step forward with this surface switch. Her sire, Court Vision, was a Grade 1 winner on grass and is a decent turf influence, and her dam also was a capable turf performer. Furthermore, her dam has been a prolific producer of grass runners, as Chorite is a half-sister to four turf winners. David Donk knows how to win these maiden-claiming turf events, and this filly should offer some value.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,4,7
 
 

RACE 7: BIG GUY IAN (#2)
Classy Class and Eighty Three bring the best overall form into this race, but I wonder if they could be compromised by a lack of pace in this spot. Of the two, Classy Class is certainly more inclined to get involved in the early running, but Kiaran McLaughlin expressed displeasure with the fact that he was racing up on the pace last time and indicated that he's more likely to be ridden from off the pace here. That should leave Big Guy Ian in a position to control the pace, and the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors the front-runner. While his apprentice rider has only had minor success on this circuit, he is known to be aggressive with his speedy mounts. Furthermore, Big Guy Ian's last few starts are not as bad as they seem. He wasn't able to make the lead against a speed-laden field two back at Laurel, and then last time, he was chasing two wide over a racetrack that featured a strong rail bias.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4,5
Trifecta: 2 with 1,3 with 1,3,4,5
 
 

RACE 8: HYDE PARK EXPRESS (#6)
Hyde Park Express has run the fastest turf races and is clearly the horse to beat in this spot. However, due to her low-profile connections and mediocre interim dirt form, she may not even be the favorite in this race. This daughter of Hat Trick put things together last fall when her connections finally decided to focus on turf races and put capable riders on her back. Since a good third over this turf course last November, she has run twice on dirt and didn’t disgrace herself in those races. Her third-place finish two back was easily the best dirt race of her career, and last time, she was badly overmatched against a salty maiden special weight field. I think she's subtly in the best form of her career, and now she gets another positive rider switch to apprentice Hector Diaz. She'd be a bargain at her morning-line 7-2 odds.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,5,8,9