by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 4: RESILIENT ONE (#6)
Runners like Comet Sixty Two and Nisharora look like the most reliable options in this race. Nisharora is the less consistent of the two runners but has been facing much tougher company in her recent starts and gets a needed drop in class here. Comet Sixty Two was somewhat successful for these connections last season and is looking to get back on track after a couple of layoffs. The only problem with these runners is that neither one possesses much early speed, and there is a notable lack of pace in this race. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that should favor horses racing on or near the lead. One of those is predicted to be La Inesperada, but she's lacked her usual early zip in recent starts and brings questionable turf form to the table. Therefore, I'm taking a shot with the other likely speed, Resilient One. This mare could prove to be a useful claim for David Cannizzo, who picked her up for a bargain price tag in February. She was languishing in cheaper dirt races over the winter because she's just not particularly effective over that surface. However, her prior turf form was consistently strong, and a return to anything close to those efforts makes her a serious threat here.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,5,7,11
 
 

RACE 5: NUT NUT (#8)
Mo Focused was installed as the morning-line favorite, but I'm strongly against this Todd Pletcher trainee. He had no real excuse to lose against a weaker field at this level last time, and his form has been steadily tailing off since a decent debut effort. In my opinion, the true horse to beat is Nut Nut, and I'm looking forward to playing this horse at what should be a square price. He ran competitively against some tougher fields over the winter and is in much better form than it appears. He was outrun in the early stages two races back while facing an unusually strong maiden-claiming field. Then, last time, while he didn't quite get the two turns, he actually did well to hang on for fourth despite racing on a dead rail for much of the way. I love the cutback to one turn for this horse, and I believe that one of his good efforts will beat this field.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,5,6,7
 
 

RACE 6: ST. LOUIE (#1)
He's certainly not going to be a huge price, but St. Louie just appears to be a very likely winner of this race. He has held his form very well ever since he won over this course last fall. Don't be discouraged by his sixth-place finish at Gulfstream last time since he had a nightmarish trip. He looked to be full of run coming to the top of the stretch, but Paco Lopez could never find a clear path for him, and St. Louie was under stout restraint while racing in traffic for the entire stretch run. He might have actually won that day had he ever gotten through. Now he finds himself in a spot where his tactical speed should come in handy since the Pace Projector is predicting that he's quick enough to be racing in front early in a situation favoring the leaders. Mike Maker is especially dangerous over the Aqueduct turf course. Over the past five years, he is 10 for 35 (29 percent) for a $4.36 ROI when sending out non-maidens over the Aqueduct turf.

Exacta: 1 with 2,5,7
Trifecta: 1 with 2,5,7 with 2,5,7
 
 

RACE 7: ZEALOUS SCHOLAR (#5)
Tiznow's Smile is a deserving favorite, but she does have some questions to answer as she returns from a layoff. Her best effort probably would beat this field, but Charlton Baker has said that this is just a spot to get her started before stretching her out again. I'm against the other runner likely to take money, Overnegotiate. She has been disappointing in her recent races, and others have more room for improvement. Instead, I'm most interested in the likely early leader, Zealous Scholar. There isn't that much speed in this race, and the Pace Projector is predicting that this filly will be clearly in front early in a situation favoring the leader. Zealous Scholar has been involved in fast paces in each of her three starts. That was especially true last time, when she put away her early pace rival before getting swallowed up by the closers late. Not only was she against the race flow that day, but she was racing on a dead rail. This filly is in better form than it appears, and she has a clear TimeformUS Speed Figure edge on this field. If she can get the seven furlongs, she can win this race at a decent price.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,6,7
Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with ALL