by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 3: MARIA GOT EVEN (#5)
Jules N Rome has been facing tougher company in her recent starts and is getting some needed class relief in this spot. She deserves to be among the favorites, but I do have some concerns about her recent form. She was justifiably considered to be a top contender in each of her last two starts against New York-bred stakes company, and she disappointed on each occasion. She squandered a relatively easy lead two back and then could not take advantage of an advantageous trip while riding an inside bias last time. She comes into this off a brief layoff while dropping in for a tag for the first time in quite a while, and I'm looking elsewhere. Given the presence of fellow speed horses like Play Unified and Browse, I envision an early pace that is at least honest. Therefore, I'm going to take a shot with the closer in the field, Maria Got Even. I know she looks too slow and too cheap, but there are some things to note about this mare. Linda Rice actually started her out at this level in her first start for the barn, which seemed logical given that most of her Panamanian starts had come in sprints. However, Maria Got Even was sluggish in the early going and only really got down to running in the final eighth of a mile. Rice then dropped her way down in class into a $25,000 claimer, seemingly giving up. However, the performance that Maria Got Even put in was a deceptively good one. She was on the rail only briefly in that race, which was run on one of the many days that featured an inside bias, instead making a wide run through the final three-eighths of a mile. Off that effort, Rice now bumps her back up to this $62,500 level, which is a great sign from a barn that is known for placing runners at appropriate class levels. I think we could see a vastly improved performance here.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,4
Trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5 with ALL
 
 

RACE 6: BAMBISFROSTYRACER (#8)
Most of the top contenders in this race don't possess a great deal of early speed, which is partly why the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that should favor runners racing on or near the early lead. Such a situation should help Bambisfrostyracer, who has been in good form in his past two starts. He ran very well two back when setting a fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in TimeformUS PPs), only to get run down in the final strides by a horse rallying from the back of the pack. Then, last time, he was off slowly and squeezed back at the start, placing him out of position. From there, his rider seemed unaware of the fact that the main track was favoring inside runners, as he kept Bambisfrostyracer in the 3 to 4 path throughout. All things considered, he did well to challenge for the lead at the quarter pole before fading late. Now he turns back to a one-turn mile, a configuration that has led him to success in the past.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 4,5,6,7
 
 

RACE 7: PROPHET’S CAT (#6)
The two favorites on the morning line are Nevisian Sky and Wine Not, and I'm a little skeptical of both. Nevisian Sky ran a fast race when winning his maiden, but he did so over a weaker field and at a sprint distance, and now he must stretch out while dealing with the speed of pace rival Two Down One to Go. Wine Not has run well at this level on a number of occasions, but he had a perfect trip last time and just wasn't good enough. He's run out of chances for me. I'd rather take runners who had wide trips in that March 11 race that Wine Not is exiting since that day featured a rail bias. The one who may have run the best race that day is Prophet's Cat. He was off slowly, got to the rail early, but then raced extremely wide for the last half of that race as he launched a prolonged rally. He was the only horse to make up significant ground from the back of the pack in a race otherwise dominated by the front-runners. Prophet's Cat appears to be in decent form for Gary Sciacca and gets a positive rider switch to Javier Castellano.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,5,7,8
 
 

RACE 9: CHOCOLATE SMOOTHIE (#3)
There is quite a bit of speed signed on for this race, and the Pace Projector is indeed predicting a fast pace, which could set the table for a late runner. While I haven't been that impressed with Chocolate Smoothie's recent efforts, I do acknowledge that she is one of the few runners in this race who can successfully launch a late rally. Furthermore, she runs her best races over wet tracks, and she appears likely to encounter such circumstances by the time this race is run later in the day. She's not my favorite kind of selection, but I do think she finds herself in the right spot today.

Win/Place: 3