by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

>Visit TimeformUS for Thursday's Highlight Horse and PPs

RACE 1: VILMA (#2)
He's not going to be any kind of big price, but it appears that Vilma has finally found a field that he should be able to handle. He's coming off a performance that you can just totally disregard. Racing along the rail, he was steadied sharply multiple times behind a horse that tired badly midway through his last race. The incident cost him a good six lengths or more, and his race was essentially over from there. Now Vilma drops back in against $40,000 claimers, and the dirt form of his competitors is just not quite enough to match his recent performances. He is also getting a rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz, who figures to have him more forwardly placed than last time.

Win: 2

RACE 6: FREEDOM TOWER (#4)
I'm not usually one to bet horses solely off trainer angles, but there is a horse in this race that fits such a strong pattern that I'd be remiss to ignore it. Freedom Tower sold for $950,000 as a two-year-old in training off a fast and visually impressive workout. However, he showed none of that speed in his debut over turf last time, barely getting involved early before fading in the stretch. I have to believe that he can do better than that, since we often see that Linda Rice's first-time starters need a race to get going. Not only does Linda get a 100 trainer rating with her second-time starters, but she also gets a 98 trainer rating with horses switching from turf to dirt. Horses doing both of these things at the same time have been especially live runners for her over the years. This horse looks quite similar to Championofthenile, who broke his maiden impressively at Saratoga a year ago for these same connections after switching to dirt in start number two. The fact that she's switching to Jose Ortiz after putting a strong half-mile workout into him last week suggests that she means business today. Furthermore, I'm just not enamored of any of the runners with proven dirt form, so I'm certainly open to a new face like Freedom Tower.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3,5

RACE 7: FROSTY MARGARITA (#8)
There's a lot going on in this race. You have stakes winners Absatootly and Flatterywillgetyou returning from lengthy layoffs. Absatootly's trainer, Charlton Baker, has more of a reputation for winning with returnees than Linda Rice, but both of these runners must be respected. There are also a couple of interesting recent claims, of which I prefer Court Dancer, who makes her first start for Jason Servis. This mare has run plenty of races that would make her awfully tough to beat, but as frontrunner she will have to deal with fellow pace player True Charm, among others. She's All Ready worked out an absolutely perfect trip to win last time but appears to be facing a tougher field this time. While all of the aforementioned runners deserve some respect, I prefer Frosty Margarita. This filly ran deceptively well last time, running off to set a strong early pace (color-coded in red) before just succumbing to eventual Go For Wand winner Highway Star late. Seven furlongs is probably a bit far for Frosty Margarita, so I like the slight turnback today. She's hardly a need-the-lead type, and she's run some of her best races over the inner track. Her last performance suggests that Rudy Rodriguez has her back in form, and I believe that her top effort can beat this field.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,4,6,7,9
Trifecta: 8 with 2,4,6 with 2,3,4,6,7,9