>Visit TimeformUS for Thursday's Highlight Horse and PPs

by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 3: Maiden Claiming $30,000 at 6 furlongs

This is hardly the strongest $30,000 maiden claiming race you'll ever see. These horses have shown so little on the racetrack that you don't need that many reasons to like anyone. Luckily, I actually do see a few signs pointing to one of the runners in this race, and he's unlikely to go off as one of the favorites. At first glance, ENTICING EVENING (#2) looks just like every other filly in this race: slow. However, when you take a closer look at her form compared to the rest of the field, it's quite apparent that she's been keeping the strongest company. She was no match for eventual Matron winner Arella Rockstar three back, and she again faced a stronger-than-average group of $50,000 claimers on October 14. However, on that day, she actually ran a bit better than her published running line suggests. She was ridden into traffic at a couple of points in the stretch and definitely could have finished closer if she had ever gotten a clear run. You can throw out her last race, when she lost the rider, which only adds to that "dirtied up" overall state of her past performances. I think she's superior to this field, and a price of greater than 5/2 would be more than fair.

Win: 2 

Race 4: Maiden Claiming $40,000 at 8 furlongs

Ethan Hunt has run the fastest races and done so against tougher company, but there are definitely some reasons to be skeptical at a short price today. He's faded in the late stages of his races beyond six furlongs, and the worst performance of his career came at today's one-mile distance. He is taking a significant drop in class today, but I prefer one of his rivals. UNDERCOVER AGENT (#5) ran like a horse that needed his debut. He was somewhat green while racing down inside, steadying once on the turn. Ideally, he would have gotten off the rail for the stretch run, but instead he stayed down inside and actually did well to rally up for third. I know that wasn't the strongest field, but he's supposed to improve in his second start. Mike Hushion, who gets a 78 trainer rating with debut runners, gets a superb 100 rating with second-time starters. Furthermore, this horse is bred to stretch out in distance as a half-brother to Friend or Foe as well as other proven routers.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,7

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight at 6 furlongs

This is a tricky race given that it's dominated by second-time starters, any one of which could take a significant step forward today. In my opinion, the two most interesting runners are the Dave Cannizzo-trained pair of Hardened and Steamroller. The latter is likely to take the most money given that he was well-backed in his debut and led the field into the stretch before faltering. However, I actually prefer his stablemate HARDENED (#3) today. Whereas Steamroller ostensibly did more running first time out, he did so in a much weaker race. Hardened was tasked with chasing the very talented Takaful in his debut and had every right to tire badly in the stretch after chasing a much faster pace than the one Steamroller set. He didn't take any money in his debut, but perhaps that's a positive sign and we can assume that he needed the race for fitness. The 79 speed figure he earned actually puts him in the mix, and I'm confident that he'll do better than that in a more favorable situation today. Given what should be a square price, I'll take a shot.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,6,7

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming at 6.5 furlongs

The pace of this race does need to be discussed, and I'll get to that. However, assuming that every horse gets a fair chance, I believe that CELTIC CHAOS (#3) will win this race based purely on talent. This three-year-old has been steadily improving over the course of this year, and I feel confident that he is set to turn the tables on runners like True Bet and John's Island, who both finished ahead of him last time. For whatever reason, Eric Cancel was content to let Celtic Chaos drop some 10 lengths off the front as the leaders set a leisurely pace. Given the huge deficit he had to make up, it's amazing that he somehow got within two lengths of the winner at the wire after unleashing a determined stretch rally. I have to think that Jose Ortiz will keep him closer to the pace today, and that may be all he needs to come out on top. I know the Pace Projector is favoring lone speed True Bet, but he almost always finds someone to run him down. Furthermore, we're guaranteed to have another wet track on our hands, which is supposed to help Celtic Chaos.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4
Trifecta: 3 with 1,2,4 with 1,2,4,5