by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS for Thursday's Highlight Horse and PPs

RACE 1: SONORA (#4)
Awesome News (#2) and Unrepented (#5) are the two obvious contenders. While the former does project to have a pace edge, I prefer Unrepented, who earned this field’s highest last-out TimeformUS Speed Figure in her win a few weeks ago. (It is worth noting that she also beat a strong outside bias that day, though the race may just have been an outlier.) While both must be used in some capacity, I’m more interested in longshot Sonora (#4). Those New York-bred $25,000 claiming races that she’s exiting tend to come up just as tough as their open counterparts, so she may have simply been overmatched in those spots. Sonora also had tough trips in those spots, going wide three back and stumbling very badly at the start last time. With a clean break, she should show more speed. This is a subtly positive rider switch, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this filly wake up at a price.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5

RACE 4: REFINED LADY (#8)
Once you get past morning-line favorite Andale Julia, who had little excuse to fade at a short price last time, you’re left with a slew of runners that have never put forth a competitive effort. That said, I do see one horse among that group that may have done more running than it appears at first glance. Refined Lady (#8) has been somewhat green in both of her starts. In her debut, her rider basically allowed her to pull herself up after she went wide on the turn. A similar scenario played out last time, when she again seemed to lose interest while taking the turn in the five-path. However, once jockey Rosario Montanez gave her a few cracks of the whip in the stretch, she took off and was finishing best of all across the wire. This filly may have some untapped potential, and it’s not as if she needs to improve that drastically to win.

Win/Place: 8

RACE 6: MASTIC (#4) / PLAY UNIFIED (#1)
I respect anything trainer Rudy Rodriguez is sending out lately, so Malibu Princess (#8) has to be feared here. Yet as far as I’m concerned, the horse to beat is Play Unified (#1). Speed figures – TimeformUS or Beyer – just don’t do her last race justice. Coming off a 15-month layoff, she battled for the lead throughout and gamely held on for third, despite racing against the flow of the race. Now, she gets Lasix and adds blinkers. The only drawback is that she may not be much of a price. I’ll use her strongly, but am leaning toward Mastic (#4) as my top pick. This filly is getting a subtle trainer upgrade to Mitch Friedman and should appreciate this slight turnback in distance. She was overmatched against stakes-quality runners two back, and last time she got pinned down on the rail, which was not the place to be. She had previously run competitive speed figures and should not be taken lightly in this spot.

Win: 4
Exacta Box: 1,4
Trifecta Key Box: 1,4 with 1,4 with 3,7,8 

RACE 7: CUMBERLAND RIVER (#1) 
If there were proper adjudication of all obvious riding infractions, Cumberland River (#1) would not even be eligible for this race. He was clearly fouled in the late stages last time as the winner abruptly drifted out several paths in the final sixteenth. That issue aside, he still put in a fine effort off a lengthy layoff and earned a TimeformUS Speed Figure that would win many races at this level. He possesses more speed than main rival Karma Delight (#3), which could be a major asset in a fairly paceless race.

Win: 1
Trifecta: 1 with 3 with ALL
Trifecta: 1 with ALL with 3

RACE 8: BOURBON EMPIRE (#2)
I am most definitely afraid of recent maiden winner Mollica (#3), who looked to be every bit of a stakes-quality runner when winning his maiden last time, earning an impressive 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Although Linda Rice is known for winning second time out, she does quite well with horses coming off maiden wins as well (93 TimeformUS Trainer Rating). The only knock against him is that he beat a field of turf horses last time and gets tested for class today. Given a short price on the aforementioned runner, I prefer Bourbon Empire (#2). I really liked his performance last time, where he was the only horse to make a serious late run behind the talented Gold for the King. He finished as if more ground should be no issue, and he’s certainly bred to handle the distance as a half-brother to six-time route winner Lutheran Miss. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he will be closing into a fast pace.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,6
Trifecta Key Box: 2,3 with 2,3 with 1,4,6,7