by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 1: KATE IS A TEN (#1)
Can Can Babe is clearly the horse to beat, but recent layoffs are cause for some concern considering that she is likely to go off as an odds-on favorite. Michelle Nevin has good numbers first off the claim (89 trainer rating) but she's getting this horse from a strong claiming trainer. It's not as if this race will just be handed to her, since she does face a legitimate rival in Kate Is a Ten. This Joe Parker trainee has run competitive speed figures on occasion and has simply been placed over her head in race after race. Some may view this steep drop in class as a negative, but you can also argue that she's finally in a race she can win. She may have needed her return last time, and I expect a better effort today.

Win: 1
Exacta: 1-2

RACE 2: HAY FIELD (#6)
I have trouble trusting the runners that are going to be short prices in this race, so I'm inclined to look outside the box. One of those likely to attract support is Linda Rice's second-time starter Pop Singer, but why not instead look at her other runner, Hay Field, at a much bigger price? She gets a 100 trainer rating with this second-out move (compared to a 62 rating first time out). I'm not sure what to make of the fact that Hay Box debuted at Finger Lakes, but her sire, Haynesfield, is a strong route influence, and she has an aggressive rider on her back. At a price around 8/1 or higher, she's worth a shot.

Win/Place: 6

RACE 5: BREE'S GOT HEART (#1)
About That Base is the favorite on the morning line, but it's a concern that her only competitive dirt race came over a sloppy track and she's since proven to have an affinity for turf. I much prefer her chief rival, Bree's Got Heart, who has run well in all of her dirt races in a variety of circumstances. She was best when breaking her maiden over a fast track at Saratoga, defeating subsequent winners Strawberry Tequila and Frosty Gal. However, she also ran deceptively well in the Maid of the Mist, in which she regathered herself to finish strongly through the lane after losing interest on the turn.

Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,3,4

Pick-4: 1 with 1,2,3,5,7 with 1,4,5,11 with 4
Pick-4: 2,3,4 with 1,2,3,5,7 with 5 with 4
Pick-4: 1 with 1,2,3,5,7 with 5 with 7

RACE 6: JOHN'S CATNIP (#7)
I realize that the Pace Projector is predicting that the pace may not be in her favor, but I still believe that John's Catnip is the runner that is going to offer the best value. I just don't trust the primary pace players to wire the field, and it's not as if either of them has a major speed figure edge over my selection. John's Catnip has improved significantly on dirt lately, and her last race is better than it looks. The race flow was not in her favor, and it didn't help that she had to alter course a few times in the stretch. We've already seen another closer, Even Bette, come back to win out of that race.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,5

RACE 7: WINE NOT (#5)
Our Pace Projector is predicting that this race will feature a fast pace, which is logical given the number of speed types signed on in this full field of 12. Naturally, I'm most interested in the closers, and the one that I want the most is Wine Not. I've always felt that this horse was better going shorter, so I like that they're turning back in distance today. His last race appears to be disconcerting at first glance, but it's worth noting that the inside path may not have been the place to be at Aqueduct on that card, and he was basically hugging the rail for his entire trip. I'll use him with Benevolence and Saratoga Giro, who may be the best of the speeds, and fellow closer Sky Chaparral off the intriguing claim by David Jacobson.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,6,8,11
Trifecta: 5 with 1,4,11 with 1,4,6,8,11

RACE 8: GO PITA GO (#4)
If Go Pita Go merely breaks cleanly and repeats the same effort that he put in last time, he is going to win this race. Despite getting badly hampered at the break, he was the only runner to make a significant impact from the back of the pack that day and actually did extremely well to get up for fourth. Michelle Nevin gets a 91 trainer rating with runners making their second start off a layoff, so he could even take a step forward off that effort.

Win: 4