by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 3: RO BEAR (#7)
I'm most interested in runners coming out of the New York-bred N2X allowance level, but I don't particularly want to bet Market Conduct, the morning-line favorite. This runner returned from a near-two-year layoff last time and did not show very much. He was racing along the rail for much of the way on a day when you wanted to be inside, yet he had no punch in the stretch. I strongly prefer Ro Bear, who has been against track biases in two straight starts. On Dec. 9, he was racing three wide for much of the way before briefly threatening in upper stretch. Then last time he encountered one of the strongest rail biases of the meet on Dec. 31, and he again did well to be fourth despite racing wide throughout. With little speed signed on, the Pace Projector is predicting he'll be closer to the pace today, and it certainly doesn't hurt to have a pace-conscious rider like Kendrick Carmouche named to ride.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,5,6
Trifecta: 7 with 2,5 with 2,3,5,6
 
 

RACE 4: CERISE’S PRINCE (#5)
There are a number of short-priced runners in here that I just don't want to bet. The list starts with Virtual Machine, who has run well in all of his starts while earning speed figure that should be good enough to handle this group. However, he's shown a propensity to hang late in his races and he now must deal with a lengthy layoff while going out for a new barn. I'm similarly skeptical of Cumberland River, who ran a fast speed figure against a weak field at Gulfstream two back, but was awful in New York in his subsequent start. I want to take a shot against these horses with Cerise's Prince. He also must deal with a layoff, but I generally trust Danny Gargan in these situations. He gets a 91 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with runners making their first starts for his barn. This gelding has made one start, which came at Churchill Downs, and ran better than it appears after his rider unwisely rode him into traffic in the stretch. His prior trainer, Steve Margolis, has mediocre numbers with first-time starters, so it's reasonable to assume that we didn't see this runner's best that day.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,7,8
 
 

RACE 5: URBANITY (#9)
There are many ways to go in this large field. Given the number of speeds signed on, the Pace Projector is expecting a fast pace to develop. Morning- line favorite Sing for Beauty may be the most talented runner in this field on her best day, but she could be hindered by her preference to race up close early. I want someone that can come from off the pace and that runner is Urbanity. I feel that this filly has improved in recent starts for Mike Hushion despite the fact that she probably doesn't want to go two turns. I like the turn-back for her and she's run some competitive speed figures sprinting. In such a competitive field, she figures to be a square price.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,4,5,11
 
 

RACE 6: SMART RUSSIAN (#2)
Big Al Parker has run the fastest speed figures, but how can you trust this horse? He hasn't been seen in almost year and returns for a bottom-level claiming tag after previously running well in much tougher starter-allowance races. He also figures to be caught up in what is predicted to be a fast pace. The obvious closer that most handicappers will gravitate toward is That Makes Sense, but I have some reservations with this horse. His connections all but ensure that he will be bet strongly despite the fact that I didn't think he ran that well last time. The pace of that race was falling apart late and he basically finished second by default when everyone else stopped. I want a different closer, and I'm going to take a shot with a horse that looks almost impossible at first glance. I realize that Smart Russian appears to be too slow, but I cannot ignore the trainer switch on this horse. His prior conditioner rarely won on this circuit and often ran horses in spots that are too tough. Now he's in the barn of Antonio Arriaga, who has been on quite a roll lately. According to DRF Formulator, over the past six months he has won with 8 of 22 starters (36%) for an ROI of $4.40. Those are staggering statistics and lead me to believe that we may see a new, improved Smart Russian today.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,6,7,9
Trifecta: 5,6,7,9 with 5,6,7,9 with 2