by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card's Highlight Horse and PPs.

RACE 2: BECAUSE I’M HAPPY (#3)
I'm against morning-line favorite Ackeret. This horse has been running competitive speed figures, but he's coming out of a weak race and now gets a negative trainer switch from Rudy Rodriguez to Dave Cannizzo, who only gets a 44 TimeformUS Trainer Rating first off the claim. I think there are two likely winners of this race, and they are Grey Glory and Because I'm Happy. The former is getting a positive trainer switch as he moves into Rodriguez's barn after a disappointing effort in the mud a few weeks ago. He's a logical contender, but he's not going to be much of a price. That's why I prefer Because I'm Happy, who is yet another runner making his first start off the claim, this one by David Jacobson. This runner has put forth plenty of efforts that make him a candidate to win this race. Furthermore, while his last race makes it seem like he's going off form, he never had much of a chance to close that day in a race that mostly held together on the front end. As long as his apprentice rider can work out a trip, he should be tough to hold off.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5,7
Trifecta: 3,7 with 3,7 with ALL
 
 

RACE 3: PICTURE DAY (#5)
Perhaps Julie D will win her sixth straight race as the odds-on favorite, but I'm wondering how long this speedy mare can keep her momentum going. She's been dangled for bottom-level claiming tags in her last two starts, which is suspicious given her seemingly strong form. Now she's moving out of the top-rate barns that she's had success for into a low-percentage stable. I think we may see a regression today. I'm willing to give Picture Day a chance to rebound in her second start off the layoff. Linda Rice doesn't have the strongest numbers with horses returning from lengthy vacations, but she does very well second off the layoff (95 TimeformUS Trainer Rating). Picture Day ran a series of races at Aqueduct last winter that would make her formidable in this spot, and I'm going to hope that she can get back to those races and run down the heavy favorite.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3
 
 

RACE 4: PROLETARIAT (#4)
This is one of the more interesting races on the card. The David Jacobson entry was made the morning-line favorite, and we'll see if both of them start. Either way, I think there are more intriguing options at better prices. In my opinion, the horse to beat is Tasunke Witco. This horse has performed admirably in his two most recent starts, especially so last time when he raced three wide throughout against a strong rail bias. The major question he has to answer is whether he can handle the turnback to a sprint since both of those races came around two turns. I'll use him strongly, but I want to take a shot against the favorites with Proletariat. This Bruce Brown trainee ran deceptively well last time. That race was dominated on the front end by Foreset, who set a strong pace in his wire-to-wire victory, but there were more than a few runners that had tough trips behind him. Proletariat was one of those as he was two to three wide on the far turn and then could never get clear in the stretch while attempting to rally. I don't mind that they keep him sprinting since he does possess more early speed than he displayed last time. This horse showed the ability to run competitive speed figures before the layoff and he is realistically spotted today by Brown, who is having a fantastic meet.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,6,8
Trifecta: 4,6 with 4,6 with 1,2,5,8
 
 

RACE 8: BOMBSHELL (#6)
She's not going to be much of a price, but I just can't get past Bombshell in this race. This filly has run well in all three of her starts, but especially so last time. While the pace of that race was not color-coded as fast in TimeformUS PPs, it was certainly a race dominated by closers. Bombshell was taken somewhat out of her game by Kendrick Carmouche, who used her tactical speed to press the longshot leader. She briefly took the lead at the top of the stretch, but could not fend off the late-running Daisy Cutter. All things considered, Bombshell was game in defeat, battling the winner all the way to the wire while losing by only a length. Furthermore, the early leader that she was hounding last time came back to narrowly lose a race here last week, albeit against a weaker field. This filly’s tactical speed should serve her well, since the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors runners on or near the lead.

Win: 6
Trifecta: 6 with 5,7 with ALL
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2,3,4 with 5,7