by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 1: SHIMMERING MOON (#4)
On the surface of things, one would assume that My Fair Lily is coming out of tougher races than her main rival Shimmering Moon. After all, My Fair Lily was competitive in a dirt race against open company whereas Shimmering Moon is coming out of races restricted to New York-breds. However, the TimeformUS Race Ratings tell a different story, assigning My Fair Lily's last dirt race a rating of just 96 and Shimmering Moon's last race a rating of 107. This suggests that Shimmering Moon faced a field of greater quality and is actually taking a step down in class here. Indeed, My Fair Lily was facing a field of primarily turf horses in that off-the-turf races, and Shimmering Moon had the misfortune of contesting one of the fastest New York-bred maiden races that has been run on this circuit in months. Shimmering Moon's TimeformUS Speed Figures - the last two of which are in the triple digits - tower over this field, due in large part to the fact that she has been contesting fast paces in those races. This time, the TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts that she'll be controlling affairs on the front end, and I think she will wire the field.

Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 1,6

RACE 2: NO TEXTING (#5)
All About Ashley was made the morning-line favorite as he comes in off a win, but that victory came against conditioned claimers, and this race - though it is a drop in claiming price - still represents a subtle step up in class. I'll certainly use him defensively, but there are more interesting alternatives at bigger prices. The one that I want is No Texting. This horse ran much better than it would appear at first glance in his last race. While he lost by more than 15 lengths, that field was dominated by runaway winner Diversify, who is on track to be the next New York-bred superstar. No Texting is typically a horse that needs to be forwardly placed in order to be effective, but he actually rated kindly and made a wide bid that carried him into second place on the far turn. He faded in the final eighth of a mile, but his effort was still good enough to earn him a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure, the highest last-out number in the field. I expect him to be more aggressively ridden in the early stages as he gets a rider switch to Jose Ortiz.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,8

RACE 4: STARRY MESSENGER (#5)
Gorelli is surely the horse to beat after failing to hang on in the mud last time when finishing fourth at this level. He does own many of the fastest speed figures in this race and can be considered the class of the field, but he has also had plenty of chances to win his maiden and has yet to come away with a win. That's just not the sort of horse that I want to bet, so I'm looking for an alternative. Starry Messenger is an intriguing option since he has run better than it appears in all of his dirt races. He sustained wide trips in his two sprint efforts on the main track, and was especially compromised two back when he had trouble at the start as well. Then, last time out, he appeared to be hindered by an indecisive ride as Eric Cancel was too concerned with trying to rate a horse that wanted to be forwardly placed. I don't mind the turn-back and believe this horse can pull off the minor upset.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,7,8

RACE 8: DEVINE DENTAL (#1) / MR. MCFROSTY (#4)
I want to take a stand against the favorites in this race. Morning-line favorite Oneballnostrikes does have tactical speed, which figures to make him dangerous in a race lacking front-runners, but I still think there are more intriguing options in here. My top pick is Devine Dental. There is no doubt that this runner is coming out of the toughest field. O Dionysus, who finished just behind him last time, went on to be competitive against stakes company while earning much higher speed figures. Devine Dental ran very well within the context of that race, making a premature move to the lead on the far turn before just getting cut down in the final strides. He now gets a trainer upgrade to Jeremiah Englehart, who is due to get rolling at this meet. I also want to use second-time starter Mr. McFrosty. I know the speed figure of his last race came back particularly low, but horses have run back out of that race to improve. Mr. McFrosty was quite professional for a first-time starter, making a prolonged run from the back of the pack in a race that otherwise held together on the front end. I wouldn't take him lightly, especially off this trainer switch to Gary Gullo.

Win: 1,4
Exacta Box: 1,4
Trifecta Key Box: 1,4 with 1,4 with ALL