by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 1: ROSSIE VAL (#2)
If Frozen Angel were to run back to his debut effort, he would likely win this race in a runaway. However, that seems increasingly unlikely given the poor effort in his second start and subsequent drop in for a claiming tag. That he hasn’t raced in over three months only adds greater doubt. The logical alternative to this favorite is T Loves a Fight, but I’m more interested in longshot Rossie Val. This gelding started on dirt only once and the effort was not nearly as bad as it might seem. He was passively ridden out of the gate and raced wide around the turn, but nevertheless finished up decently. He didn’t handle the turf last time, but now takes a logical drop in class as he switches to the barn of Nick Esler, a trainer who certainly knows how to win with young horses.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,7
 
 

RACE 3: NEVISIAN SKY (#5)
I have trouble getting excited about the horses that are coming out of that Jan. 1 race won by Ransom Note. Read the Dream ran the best race, but he was favored by a slow pace (indicated by the blue color-coding in TimeformUS PPs). He, Altesino, and Light the Vow all can win, but I want to take a shot against them with Nevisian Sky. This horse remains a complete unknown after barely making it across the finish line in his first couple of starts. That said, he took a ton of money in both of those races, and I find it significant that his connections bring him back at the maiden special weight level. Chad Brown gets a 93 Trainer Rating with horses coming off layoffs of this type. If he’s ever going to show up, it’s supposed to be today.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4
 
 

RACE 6: OUR KARMA (#3)
This is one of the more puzzling races on the card. Favored Renwick figures to take a step forward after just losing to fellow contender Dan the Man last time, but he’s had a ton of problems that have kept him off the racetrack and he may just not be the horse that he once was. I think this is a good spot to get a little creative, and that’s what I’m going to try to do with Our Karma. This horse has not really had a fair chance in his last couple of starts. He tried this distance two back, and it almost seemed like his rider gave up on the far turn after a wide trip. However, once into the stretch, he actually started to re-rally and was finishing best of the also-rans. Then last time, a poor start did him in. Rosario Montanez needs to get this horse out of the gate and he’s been riding quite well, and I think Our Karma has a chance to pull off the upset if he is aggressively handled.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5,9
 
 

RACE 7: HEAD SHRINKER (#3)
The inner track had taken a ton of rain by the time the seventh race was run on Jan. 2, and it was quite apparent that some horses were just not handling the surface. I’m going to guess that Head Shrinker may have been one of those. She never appeared comfortable and her rider was basically out of horse after a quarter-mile. This filly had run competitive speed figures as a young horse and it stands to reason that she would have improved since then with maturity. The poor return is a setback, but it’s a good sign that Bruce Levine elects to keep her at this class level for her next start.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,6,7,8
 
 

RACE 8: MYFOURCHIX (#2)
The likely favorite is Indulgent, a half-sister to Frosted who is coming off two consecutive victories. Perhaps she’s just an improving horse and will continue to ascend through her conditions, but I have my doubts. She benefited last time when the main track at Aqueduct was kind to runners in outside paths. I won’t be shocked if she wins, but I don’t expect her to offer value. Instead, I’m going with Myfourchix, who makes her second start off the layoff. Her return race was stronger than the eight-length margin of defeat suggests. She was keen and made an early run to challenge for the lead at the top of the stretch before flattening out. Prior to the layoff, this mare had been competitive with some solid low-level stakes performers. I like that she’s drawn inside because she’s a horse that can get eager and benefits from being covered up behind runners. If she takes a step forward off her return, she can certainly win this.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,7,8,9