by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS for this card's Highlight Horse and PPs.

RACE 1: CAROLINA COURAGE (#4)
Likely heavy favorite Archumybaby has simply run the fastest races and done so against tougher company than what she meets today. Whether she will handle two turns is unknown, but she may not even have to show up with her top performance to get the job done. While she is the horse to beat, I see an alternative at a more attractive price. Carolina Courage finished less than four lengths behind Archumybaby two back despite the fact that she was steadied sharply at the quarter pole and racing down inside on the worst part of the track. Her last race was disappointing, but it's possible that she just might not have cared for the sloppy surface that day. I have a bit more confidence that she'll get today's distance since she's a half-sister to Night Madam, who broke her maiden going two turns over this surface.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,6

RACE 4: QUIEN SABE (#3)
Primo Pentimento deserves to be favored, but I'm starting to get a little tired of this horse. Sure, he's had trips in a few races and is coming off two straight efforts in which he set fast paces (color-coded red in TimeformUS PPs). On the other hand, he hasn't shown much of a will to win and I won't be surprised if he finds someone to pass him late again here. I'm taking a shot with Quien Sabe, who deserves another chance going a route of ground. His only prior start at a mile came in a maiden special weight race where he had the misfortune of encountering eventual Albany Stakes winner Hit It Once More in his breakout performance. Furthermore, that race featured a very slow pace, which worked against a closer like Quien Sabe. His two recent sprints at this level have been uninspiring, but Mark Hennig gets a decent 76 trainer rating with stretch-outs, and he does especially well in this situation. DRF Formulator Fact: Over the past 5 years, Hennig is 5 for 15 (33%) with a $2.32 ROI with horses going from sprints to dirt routes in maiden claiming races. I'm hoping that Manny Franco – who has given plenty of alert rides at this meet – is aggressive out of the gate with this sometimes sluggish runner.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,6,7,9

RACE 5: TIZ RAE ANNA (#2)
Liz’s Cable Girl was quite the surprise in her debut, winning off by over 10 lengths at odds of more than 35-1. However, there was nothing fluky about that performance and she is a serious threat to wire this field. Both her Beyer Speed Figure and TimeformUS Speed Figure indicate that she is simply the fastest horse in this race by some ways. Furthermore, the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that she will be loose on the lead early in a situation favoring the front-runner. While I respect this filly, I simply have to bet one of her competitors in this spot, Tiz Rae Anna. Absolutely nothing went right for this filly last time. She stumbled at the start and was squeezed back to last early. She was then completely blocked for almost the entire duration of the race, only getting clear in the final sixteenth of a mile when the race was essentially over. She then proceeded to gallop out in a fashion suggesting she had much more to give. The winner of that race, Toni Tools, came back to win a stakes – albeit with a great setup – and Tiz Rae Anna had dominated today’s rival Summer of Joy in their previous meeting. She needs to improve slightly to beat Liz's Cable Girl, but I think she's up to the task.

Win: 2
Exacta Box: 2,4
Trifecta: 2 with 1,3,4 with ALL 

RACE 6: GUYANA CAT (#2)
If there were ever a horse that needed a break, it was Guyana Cat. At the time of his most recent race, which came in August, this runner was making his 29th start in just over 12 months. Chris Englehart got a couple of starts into this horse after claiming him, but then allowed him the time he needed to recover after he failed to improve with more racing. Englehart actually has great numbers bringing runners back off layoffs of this type (94 TimeformUS Trainer Rating), and he has been on quite a roll at this inner-track meet. Most of the horses that he's sent out have been live, and he's even been winning with runners shipping in from Finger Lakes. Guyana Cat is realistically spotted and he figures to get at least a fair pace to close into with speeds like Zartax, Our Karma, and Made of Steel in the mix.

Win/Place: 2