by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card's Highlight Horse and PPs.

RACE 2: WINGMAN (#3)
While Bunyaan has run some of the fastest speed figures in the field on the dirt, he doesn't make for a particularly compelling wager in this race. Bunyaan's major claim to fame resides with his eye-catching two-length defeat back in 2015 after he bolted early in the race. Since returning to the races this winter, he hasn't exactly impressed in two starts against tougher, maiden special weight company. While the winner of his last race is a nice horse, the rest of that field looks destined for the maiden-claiming ranks, so this may not be as big of a class drop as it seems. I prefer another runner dropping out of maiden special weight company. Wingman has a lot of angles working for him in this spot. His trainer, Mike Hushion, has fantastic numbers with runners making this kind of move. He gets a 100 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden-claiming company, and a 97 Trainer Rating with horses stretching out in distance. Furthermore, Wingman is bred to handle this stretch-out. His sire Haynesfield is a surprisingly strong stamina influence, as his progeny win 27% of their route attempts after they turn 3, according to DRF Formulator. Wingman is also a half-sibling to Divine Park, a Grade 1-winning router. Kendrick Carmouche is the perfect rider for this situation, since he is adept at taking advantage of seemingly paceless situations.

Win: 3
Trifecta: 3 with 2,5 with ALL
Trifecta: 3 with 1,4,6 with 2,5
 
 

RACE 4: KING OF ANYTHING (#1)
Mewannarose is going to be awfully tough to beat. He's making his first start off the claim by Rudy Rodriguez (a 100 Trainer Rating move), and the Pace Projector is predicting that he will have a sizable pace advantage. He figures to face some early pressure from Dad'z Laugh, who will be ridden by the aggressive apprentice Hector Diaz, but Mewannarose is supposed to be the faster horse. However, it is worth pointing out that Mewannarose's last race is not nearly as impressive as it looks. Jan. 13 was a day that was strongly favoring inside speed and Mewannarose basically rode the bias to victory. He hasn't raced in nearly seven weeks and returns at the same claiming level. He will probably win anyway, but I do see a viable alternative that could go off at a generous price. King of Anything ran deceptively well in his New York debut last time. I know that he was only racing for a $25,000 tag, but that was a particularly strong race for that level (note the 113 Race Rating), so this is not as much of a hike in class it seems. King of Anything was off slowly in that race, and raced very wide around the far turn on a day when horses making inside moves had an advantage. If he breaks cleanly here and repeats that last effort, I think he has a chance to pull off the upset at a generous price.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4,6
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with ALL
 
 

RACE 5: DISTORTED DREAM (#5)
Is David Jacobson really going to run the classy John's Island for $10,000? His absence would totally change this race, since I'm not fond of the chances of his stablemate Johannesburg Smile. Yet even if he does run, it begs the question: Why is such a good horse being given away for a fraction of what he appears to be worth? Beyond this entry, there really isn't much quality to the rest of the field. For that reason, I'm choosing to highlight a huge longshot that shouldn't be overlooked. Distorted Dream's recent form looks absolutely terrible. However, it is worth noting what actually happened in his last race, when he dropped his rider at the start. Racing riderless down the backstretch, Distorted Dream sliced his way through the field, drawing away from everyone late and registering a runaway "victory." Now I don't want to put too much stock in horses running with 118-pound weight breaks, but it does signal that this guy was feeling pretty good last time. I can excuse his return race two back when he was racing on a dead rail. Going back to late 2015, he did run some races that would make him competitive in this spot. I know I'm being fairly creative, but I think this race calls for it.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4,7,8
Trifecta: 1 with 3,4,7,8 with 5