>Visit TimeformUS for Thursday's Highlight Horse and PPs

by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 4: Allowance at 6 furlongs

I suppose Ryder Road (#7) is the horse to beat off his fast and professional maiden win at Belmont. However, there are some reasons to be skeptical of his chances to make it 2-for-2 today. First of all, Rick Violette is one of the best in the business with first-time starters (99 trainer rating), but he routinely underperforms with second-time starters (50 rating). Furthermore, we have the race rating box color-coded in red, indicating that the track was favoring speed that day, which may have enhanced his chances.

While I typically shy away from horses shipping in from Finger Lakes, Chris Englehart is one trainer that's able to do it successfully, especially at Aqueduct. Given what should be a square price, his FRATELLO DEL NORD (#1) is an intriguing alternative. He has prior NYRA form that suggests he can perform on this circuit, and he's undoubtedly improved in recent months. His last effort, in which he dueled for the lead through fast fractions and held on to win in a race that otherwise collapsed, was especially strong. If he can outrun his rivals early, I think he could take them all the way.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,6,7 

Race 5: Claiming $25,000 at 8.5 furlongs on turf

There is quite a bit of speed signed on for this event, so it's no surprise that the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. I want closers in this spot, and the one that I think could offer the best value is BULLHEADED BOY (#11). This horse has been competing in tougher spots for the majority of the year, but he's taking a logical drop in class now as we come to the end of the turf season. While he didn't get the opportunity to finish his last race when he was fouled and subsequently lost his rider, he was actually advancing menacingly at the time of the incident and probably would have been a major factor that day. I like the rider switch to Irad Ortiz and believe he'll be tough to hold off.

Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,3,6,8

Race 7: Allowance at 8 furlongs on turf

It's really hard to trust anyone in this race. There is very little turf route form to go on and many of the horses that are going to be short prices have done their best work sprinting. Given the uncertain nature of this affair, I'm inclined to take a shot with a price. BONITA SPRINGS (#10) has raced on turf only once, but there are a few reasons to give her a pass for finishing off the board that day. First of all, Tom Bush just doesn't fire with his first-time starters, and they usually improve with racing. She also ran better than it appears after getting pinned down inside for much of the running. Her pedigree suggests more ground on grass should be to her liking. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and she figures to be ridden as a closer from this outside post position.

Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,2,4,6,7,9

Race 8: Allowance at 8 furlongs

My pick here is an educated guess, at best, but this is a race that requires some guesswork. It's just very hard to trust any of the short prices, or those with proven dirt form. Puca (#4) was, at one time, the most talented filly in this race, but she hasn't raced in well over a year, so who knows what to expect from her? Daisy Cutter appears to be more reliable, but her plodding running style does not fit the projected race flow. I'm taking a shot with HAVANA MOON (#3), who has never raced on dirt. She just strikes me as the kind of filly that isn't really suited to turf racing, since she doesn't have any turn of foot whatsoever. She appears to have trained forwardly over dirt, and it's interesting that Brian Lynch is taking a shot, since he gets a 94 trainer rating with this turf-to-dirt move. After all, she is by Malibu Moon and is a half-sister to one dirt winner.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,7,8

Race 9: Maiden Claiming $40,000 at 8.5 furlongs on turf

This is purely a pedigree play. MR. EURO (#3) didn't do much running on dirt in his debut, but his breeding suggests that he is supposed to take a significant step forward on grass. He is by solid turf influence Exchange Rate and out of a dam that saw all of her success come on turf, over which she won three races and earned over $100,000. It's interesting that Steve Asmussen claimed this horse out of his debut and immediately tries to get him on grass, and it doesn't hurt to have one of the leading turf riders on the circuit named aboard.

Win/Place: 3