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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 3: The Gio Ponti at 8.5 furlongs on turf

The horse to beat is Catapult given the expected pace scenario, which places long shot Pirellone (#4) on the lead in a situation favoring the frontrunner. Catapult (#6) figures to be in a good tactical position stalking that one, whereas his main rival, Strike Midnight (#3), prefers to come from a bit farther off the pace as he did when rallying from last place to get up for second in the English Channel last time.

That day, TOUGHEST 'OMBRE (#8) also rallied from the back of the pack, but I’m expecting him to be placed much closer to the pace today given his penchant for using his tactical speed. While the pace of the English Channel did largely fall apart, Strike Midnight was with the race flow, as he was able to get outside and rally around horses. That was not the case for Toughest ‘Ombre, who got stymied down inside and lost momentum coming to the top of the stretch as the fading frontrunners backed up in his face. Toughest ‘Ombre has occasionally run well enough to suggest he can win a race at this level, and he should offer better value than the other two.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,6 

Race 6: Claiming $25,000 at 8.5 furlongs on turf

Of the runners coming out of the tenth race on November 5, I feel that PRIEST N THE RABBI (#8) ran the best race. This horse has put forth some of his better efforts when coming from a mid-pack or stalking position in the past, but he was taken all the way to the back of the pack last time. Rather than attempting to save ground on the far turn—as runner-up Mr. Sam was able to do under a perfect ride by Rajiv Maragh—Priest N the Rabbi was taken to the far outside and spun out into the five-path coming into the stretch. He also ran better than it appears two back when he was steadied out of position on the backstretch and forced to make a wide run around the far turn. This Steve Asmussen trainee is in better form than it appears and is projected to get a fast pace to close into today. He should be tough to hold off if he works out a fair trip under new rider Antonio Gallardo.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,6,10,11

Race 7: Allowance at 8 furlongs

Always On My Mind (#3) figures to go off as the favorite, but I don’t completely trust her. I’m always a little suspicious of these Todd Pletcher trainees that manage to never make a start at a NYRA track. I realize that her last speed figure, in the Remington Park Oaks, would appear to make her the horse to beat, but so many horses earned new lifetime bests in that race that it makes me want to see a few of them repeat those figures before believing the race was quite that fast.

Her main rivals appear to be the Rudy Rodriguez-trained pair, and I prefer MADAM AAMOURA (#1) of the two. The Pace Projector is predicting that she’ll be on the lead in a situation favoring the frontrunner. La Inesperada also possesses some speed, but she’s just not as fast as Madam Aamoura early. This Zayat Stables runner ran better than it appears in her NYRA debut last February, setting a solid pace in a race otherwise dominated by late runners. We saw a few horses come back out of that race to improve their speed figures. The layoff is a concern, but Rudy’s runners have been performing well and I think she’s dangerous.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,5

Race 8: The Fall Highweight Handicap at 6 furlongs

There’s no denying that Stallwalkin’ Dude is (#9) the horse to beat. After a rough start to the year, he’s maintained excellent form since returning to action this summer. If he runs back to his efforts in the Vosburgh or Bold Ruler, he is probably going to win this race. That said, he does have to concede a significant amount of weight to much of the field.

While there is some speed in this race to set up his late run, the Pace Projector is not predicting a fast pace. Angry Moon will certainly be sent to the front, but he faces a pesky foe in GREEN GRATTO (#8), who I think has an outside chance to spring the upset. This New Jersey-bred was the surprise winner of this race last year, but he’s had mixed results since then. However, if you isolate his fast-track dirt races, it becomes clear that he’s actually been in better form than you might think. He was put in a difficult position breaking from the rail last time, but I thought he actually held on gamely going a distance that’s a bit too far for him. He’s always produced his very best efforts right here at Aqueduct and Kendrick Carmouche gets along well with him.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,6,7,9
Trifecta Key Box: 8,9 with 8,9 with 1,3,6,7