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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 1: Maiden Special Weight at 8 furlongs

In my opinion, CONTROL GROUP (#3) deserves to be a strong favorite in this race. He has run very well in both of his starts and is simply faster than his main rivals. He may have needed his career debut, but still ran well despite having to race in an uncomfortable position between and behind horses, taking dirt in his face, for much of the running. He was a much more professional horse next time out, in which he survived a fast pace (color-coded in red) to hang on for second in a race that otherwise collapsed. He must stretch out from seven furlongs to a mile, but his full-sibling We Did successfully won at this distance—and did so over a wet track, which we're likely to encounter today—so there's reason to believe that he can handle it. His main rivals appear to be Carradine (#4), who has never raced beyond six furlongs and has faced weaker company, and the #1 entry, which will likely be an underlay if both halves start.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5
Trifecta: 3 with 1,4,5 with 1,4,5

Race 5: Claiming $40,000 at 8.5 furlongs on turf

Assuming this race gets switched from turf to dirt, which seems extremely likely given the large amount of rain in the forecast, I want to bet on a Main Track Only entrant that may get overlooked. I suppose horses like Lost Iron (#5) and Going Strong (#14) would become the horses to beat in this situation, but both of them are deep-closing plodders, and it's hard to trust runners like that, especially over a wet track in a depleted field that is unlikely to feature a strong pace. I'm instead interested in SANDY STRIKES (#13).

I know this horse looks hard to recommend off his recent form, but it is worth noting that he has been facing tougher company. His return race last time feels as if it was just a prep, and I imagine that he's going to be fitter today. Based purely on his speed figures, it's not as if he needs to improve much at all on his fastest recent races to contend with the two aforementioned horses. He's previously put forth some of his best efforts on wet tracks, and the low-profile connections will surely drive up the price.

Main Track:
Win/Place: 13
Exacta Key Box: 13 with 3,5,8,9,12,14

Race 7: Starter Allowance at 6 furlongs

This is an odd race. Many of the horses that are likely to take money have run their best races on turf, whereas those with decent dirt races on their records are either off form or coming off layoffs. Given the amount of uncertainty at play, I feel fairly confident that the one horse we can lean on is WILDCAT BELLE (#10).

Going seven furlongs may have simply been too much for her to handle off the layoff last time, but she actually ran well considering the fast pace and the fact that she was no match for the vastly improved winner. Danny Gargan is so dangerous in these situations, as is evidenced by his 93 trainer rating with runners making their second starts off a layoff (as opposed to a 73 first time back) and his 98 trainer rating when riding Kendrick Carmouche. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which may hinder her chances, but Wildcat Belle is drawn perfectly outside of all of the other speeds. Her main pace rival, Sing for Beauty, is being ridden by a 10-pound apprentice, so if that filly doesn't get out of the gate sharply, Kendrick could find himself in position to control affairs up front.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,5,6,8,9

Race 8: Allowance at 8 furlongs

While Matt King Coal (#5) is a very talented three-year-old and obviously the horse to beat, bringing runners back off extended layoffs is not the strongest move for Linda Rice. If he's ready to fire a top effort, he will win, but it's not as if his task will be an easy one. He has to deal with speed from fellow frontrunners Dixie Runner and Gentrify, as well as perhaps even Three Alarm Fire.

Given the hurdles, I think today could be the day to take a shot against him and I see a viable alternative in BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON (#2). I admit that I've been a fan of this horse, but I think he's landed in a perfect spot today. He is supposed to get a fair pace to close into, and he's run very well at this one-turn-mile distance. Furthermore, I found his return race to be quite encouraging. Six and a half furlongs is too short for him, but I loved the way he finished through the final furlong. He took a big step forward when stretched out off his sprint debut at the start of his career, and I'm expecting similar improvement in his second start back from a layoff here. Javier Castellano should have him placed in a more tactical position today, and I think he can wear down the favorite if that one gets leg-weary in the final eighth of a mile.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,5,7,8
Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,5 with 4,7,8