by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 3: CHINA RIDER (#1)
Silver Dollar Diva is clearly the horse to beat. Chad Brown is just so dangerous with these types of runners, as is evidenced by his 100 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with second-time starters. This filly was really rolling late at Gulfstream in her debut despite having to overcome a slow early pace (indicated by blue color-coding in PPs). If she runs back to that effort, she is probably going to win. However, like last time, there does not appear to be much early speed in this race, so she could be pace-compromised once again. The runner that may be able to take advantage of such a scenario is China Rider. While not necessarily a front-runner, she has been showing good early speed in her recent dirt sprints, and her rider, Kendrick Carmouche, is acutely aware of pace situations like this. I expect him to send her to the lead from the rail. Furthermore, she actually ran quite well in her only turf start. That race came against the toughest field of turf maidens that was assembled all meet at Saratoga. The top two finishers out of that race have both gone on to become graded stakes winners, and it's not as if China Rider finished that far behind them.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,5,6
Trifecta: 1,4 with 1,4 with ALL
 
 

RACE 4: PASS THE DICE (#3)
If Lord Commander repeats his last speed figure, he will quite simply win this race. However, the chances of him replicating that performance seem pretty slim. First of all, he accomplished that victory while riding a strong inside speed bias on March 5, which contributed to his lopsided victory. Furthermore, Linda Rice is dropping him in for a bottom-level claiming tag, which is almost one-third of the price tag for which he ran last time. It's usually not a good sign when Rice just gives up on horses like this, and I have to think he's vulnerable here. The question is: Who else do you want? I'm going to take a shot with Pass the Dice in his second start back off a layoff. While he didn't get a terrible trip in his return, he was rated quite aggressively behind a moderate pace that just never really developed. Others got the jump on him turning for home and his race was basically over when he took a hard bump at the quarter pole. Now he's getting back on the main track and racing around one turn again, which is clearly what he prefers to do.

Win/Place: 3
 
 

RACE 7: MYFOURCHIX (#4)
I suppose Malibu Princess is a deserving favorite here. She barely lost last time against a decent field at this same level in what was an oddly run race that saw horses changing position at multiple points. This time, the Pace Projector is predicting that she will be either on or near the lead in a situation favoring the front-runners. That said, she will have to negotiate an extra half-furlong, which could be an issue if Summer House turns up the heat early. I'll use her, but I prefer another runner who is going to be a more generous price. Myfourchix finally appears to have regained her form after needing her first couple of starts back off the layoff. She ran better than it appears two back when getting a wide trip around the far turn chasing a slow pace. Then last time she may have been too patiently ridden and was left with too much ground to make up in the stretch. She can be placed closer to the pace, and 6 1/2 is clearly her best distance.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,6
Trifecta: 4 with 1,3,6 with 1,3,5,6
 
 

RACE 8: WINTRY (#1)
These maiden-claiming turf races at Aqueduct can be some of the most intriguing handicapping puzzles you find all year on the NYRA circuit. While it's easy to point out the runners with proven turf form, more often than not you'll find a slew of horses with some turf pedigree that may have disliked running on the inner dirt track over the winter. The tricky part is figuring out which if any of those runners are going to move forward enough to be successful. Outrageous Bet and The Intern are the horses that have proven their affinity for turf. However, both are coming off significant layoffs and neither one has run that fast. I'm more interested in some of the creative options. If there's one first-time turfer in this field that has the pedigree to really turn things around with this surface switch, I believe it's Wintry. He was terrible on dirt in his lone start, but he might have hated that surface. His dam was a five-time turf winner, and his sire, Get Stormy, is proving to be a good sire of turf winners in a relatively small sample. He's drawn well toward the rail and he figures to get ignored on the tote board.

Win/Place: 1