by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 4: RUN BLONDIE RUN (#3)
Relentless Miss is the kind of Chad Brown runner that is going to take plenty of money in this spot. While Brown does do well with lightly raced runners, I was somewhat surprised to find that his numbers in this specific situation are fairly mediocre, at least by his lofty standards. According to DRF Formulator, when dropping turf runners from maiden special weight to maiden-claiming races in their second start, he is just 3 for 16 over the past five years, with an ROI below $2.00. I’ll instead lean towars her chief rival, Run Blondie Run, who has put in stronger efforts than the co-favorite on a few occasions. She might have won over this course three races back had she not been badly fouled in the last eighth of a mile. Since then, she's run well at Gulfstream, including a decent fifth last time after setting a strong early pace (indicated by red color-coding in PPs). Her trainer, Bill Mott, gets a 100 TimeformUS Trainer Rating when teaming up with Kendrick Carmouche.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,6
 
 

RACE 5: STORMY PRINCESS (#6)
Stormy Princess was ambitiously placed in a competitive starter-allowance race last time. While she was never going to win that race, she certainly was not helped by the aggressive rating tactics employed by her rider. Stormy Princess broke alertly and was contesting the lead, at which point Eric Cancel decided that she would be better off rallying from off the pace. Rather than continue her forward momentum, he gave up valuable position as he wrangled her back, and ended up losing ground around the far turn anyway. She passed a few tired rivals in the stretch, but her race was basically over at that point. Now she drops into an easier spot and gets a rider switch to Manny Franco. Michelle Nevin gets a strong 97 TimeformUS Trainer Rating second off the claim.

Win: 6
 
 

RACE 6: FIVE STAR RAMPAGE (#4)
I suppose that Three Eighty Eight is the horse to beat, but I was not enamored with her effort last time. She should have put up more of a fight in the stretch when attempting to chase down Time Squared, yet she ended up losing ground to that foe late. Three Eighty Eight’s trainer, Linda Rice, has been firing on all cylinders lately, so I respect anything she's sending out. However, this filly is not going to be much of a price this time, and I think she's vulnerable. Beyond her, the options are limited. Abounding Spirit and Frostie Anne have both run competitive speed figures, but did so against much weaker competition. Therefore, I'm going to try to beat them all with Five Star Rampage. I know that there's no guarantee that this filly can get the one-mile distance, but Jimmy Jerkens has especially strong numbers in this situation. According to DRF Formulator, he is 9 for 38 (24%) for a $2.24 ROI over the past five years when sending out horses stretching out for the first time on dirt. Her recent form is slightly better than it appears and she's getting a positive rider switch to John Velazquez.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3,5
Trifecta: 3,4 with 3,4 with 1,2,5
 
 

RACE 7: BATTLEMENT (#7)
There is quite a bit going on in this interesting feature race. Chad Brown holds a strong hand as he sends out the two shortest prices on the morning line, but both of his runners have some questions to answer. Volatility Index was visually impressive when breaking her maiden by nearly six lengths at Gulfstream, but she did so against a fairly weak field for the level and gets a major class test here. I have similar concerns about War Queen, who was closing well last time, but is also stepping up in class slightly out of a subpar Gulfstream allowance race. I'm trying to beat that pair with Bill Mott's recent import Battlement. This Juddmonte homebred has a pedigree that suggests we have not yet seen the best of her. She is very nearly a full sister to Suffused, who has become a multiple graded stakes winner for these same connections since making the trip to the United States last year. (The two share a dam and their sires are full brothers.) While Battlement's British form does not look terribly inspiring, our Timeform foreign correspondents had nothing but positive things to say about her races last year, suggesting that her overall form is stronger than it appears at first glance. (Read more in the TimeformUS PPs for this race.) This could be the start to a productive 4-year-old campaign for this filly.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,5,8
Trifecta: 7 with 1,3,5,8 with 1,3,5,8