by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 3: HAVE ANOTHER (#2)
While this allowance race drew only a five-horse field, it's hardly lacking in quality. The tepid morning-line favorite is Blue Belt, who has done little wrong in his three career starts. This New York-bred is facing a tougher field than the one he beat last time, but he certainly accomplished that win in stylish fashion. He likely will have to deal with fellow New York-bred Horoscope on the front end. This Dave Cannizzo trainee was unlucky to lose to first-time starter Long Haul Bay two back in one of the fastest New York-bred maiden races we've seen run over the inner track in years. He then easily dispatched of some overmatched rivals last time. The paces of his last two races have been color-coded blue in TimeformUS PPs, indicating slow early fractions, so he will have to prove that he can deal with the speed of Blue Belt early in this race. I'm hoping that these two hook up early because I think the most talented runner in the field is the late-running Have Another. This David Donk trainee was just spectacular when winning his maiden over a good group of runners last time. He appeared to be hopelessly beaten on the turn for home, but he unleashed a devastating stretch kick once steered out into the clear. According to Trakus, he ran his final quarter mile in 23.76 seconds – almost two seconds faster than every other horse in the race – while drawing away impressively late. As long as Pablo Fragoso makes sure he doesn't lose contact with the field early, his stretch speed could be too much for his rivals to overcome.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3
 
 

RACE 4: DESIROUS (#5)
No Need to Appeal is obviously the horse to beat. Not only was she facing a much stronger field than the one she meets today when making her debut at Gulfstream, but she actually didn't run that badly in closing to finish fifth. With routine second-out improvement, she is supposed to win this race. However, these Chad Brown horses are routinely overbet in situations like this, so I wonder if this filly could drop into underlay territory. While No Need to Appeal is the most likely winner, I'm most interested in a runner who could get somewhat overlooked in the wagering. Desirous figures to improve in her second start off the layoff for Danny Gargan after a difficult trip last time. She was off slowly and squeezed back at the start, costing her several lengths. From there, she did well to quickly get herself back into a tracking position along the rail. However, she got caught in behind some tiring runners heading around the far turn, losing valuable momentum. She got clear at the quarter pole, but the winner, who had ridden an inside speed bias, was already long gone by that point. Considering that it was Desirous's first start around two turns, it was a pretty encouraging effort, and I think she'll have more to offer here.

Win/Place: 5
Trifecta: 5,7 with 5,7 with 1,3,6
 
 

RACE 5: IF YOU BELIEVE (#4)
I really don't trust the favorites in this race. Ice Palace has consistently run some of the fastest speed figures, but her form has been steadily declining, and she's especially hard to take off her disappointing effort against a comparable group last time. I'm similarly skeptical about the chances of On the List, who takes a steep drop in class for Todd Pletcher. It's generally not a great sign when Pletcher plunges horses in class like this, and her last race suggests that she just might not have anything left to offer. I want someone else, which is why I'm taking a shot with If You Believe. I know that her recent form is nothing to write home about, but she has had a few excuses. She was wide on the turn last time and didn’t run that badly when contesting an honest pace two back. I like this one-turn mile for her, and the Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner in what is otherwise a paceless affair.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3,5,7
 
 

RACE 8: ZEALOUS SCHOLAR (#2)
It would be disingenuous of me to seriously suggest that Kathryn the Wise is likely to lose this race. If she runs back to her maiden victory, in which she earned a gigantic 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure, she is going to win. However, if you're looking to play exactas or trifectas, I do want to highlight a longshot who has a decent chance of working her way into the mix. Zealous Scholar has been involved in fast paces in each of her three career starts. That was especially true last time, when she put away her early pace rival before getting swallowed up by the closers late. Not only was she against the race flow that day, but she also was racing on a dead rail. I think this filly is in better form than it appears, and she could hang around to complete the exotics at a price.

Win/Place: 2
Trifecta: 5 with 2 with 1,3,4,7
Trifecta: 5 with 1,3,4,7 with 2